THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Sunday, October 1, 1995 TAG: 9510020213
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A1 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY STEVE STONE, STAFF WRITER
LENGTH: Long : 140 lines
Only six names remain.
The busiest hurricane season in 60 years hit a benchmark Saturday as Tropical Depression 17 strengthened and became Tropical Storm Opal - marking the first time since storms have been given names that the letter ``O'' has been reached.
If the Atlantic hurricane season generates a half-dozen more named storms before it ends Nov. 30, the official list of names will be exhausted and the National Hurricane Center will resort to the old phonetic alphabet - Able, Baker, Charlie . . .
The question of what to call a future storm is of little concern to residents of the Gulf Coast, however. They're worried about Opal.
At 5 p.m. Saturday, Opal was 55 miles north of Merida, Mexico, on the Yucatan Peninsula. Maximum sustained winds had increased to near 50 mph.
Opal had drifted over the Yucatan for several days, but its eye moved offshore Saturday and it is expected to move northwest at about 6 mph through today and then speed up.
``Will it become a hurricane? We're not sure,'' said Rich Johnson, a meteorologist at The Weather Channel in Atlanta. ``But certainly it will strengthen some.''
The Hurricane Center's forecast track has Opal steering north-northwest today and then turning north - possibly coming ashore somewhere between Pensacola, Fla., and Galveston, Texas, - by Tuesday. But hurricane forecasts beyond 24 to 36 hours have a wide margin of error.
Still, ``We are expecting it to make landfall somewhere in the coastal area of the southern U.S. sometime early next week,'' Johnson said.
Mexico issued a tropical storm warning from Cozumel and Cancun to Progreso on Saturday.
With rainfall of more than 10 inches already, and forecasts for that much more, heavy flooding and mudslides were reported.
Meanwhile, Noel, the season's eighth hurricane, was downgraded to a tropical storm Saturday as it moved east-northeast in the Atlantic, 1,500 miles southwest of the Azores. It is no threat to land.
There were no other tropical disturbances in sight Saturday, but that doesn't mean more are not coming.
``We really don't know,'' said Ed Rappaport, a meteorologist at the Hurricane Center in Miami. ``Activity tends to continue until about mid-October,'' he said. After that, storm frequency drops dramatically.
Normally.
This, however, has not been a normal season. So far, eight of the 15 named storms have reached hurricane strength with maximum winds in excess of 74 mph. It's hard to know - or even guess - what lies ahead.
``This amount of activity is certainly unusual . . . and it's occurred in few other years, so we don't have a large historical data base to make comparisons with for future activity,'' Rappaport said. Normally, another two or three named storms would occur in October and November, Rappaport said.
``If the season were to end today, this would be the fifth most active on record,'' Rappaport said.
The busiest hurricane season was in 1933, when there were 21 tropical storms, 10 of which became hurricanes, including two that hit North Carolina's Outer Banks and Southeast Virginia.
This season had been producing storms at a faster pace than 1933. Marilyn, this year's 13th named storm, formed in mid-August; 1933 didn't see its 13th until Sept. 8.
September calmed, however, yielding only three storms compared with five in 1933. ``So I don't think we're keeping pace anymore,'' Rappaport said.
Besides the 21 storms in 1933, the other three busiest years were 1936 with 16 storms, and 1887 and 1969 with 17 storms each. But there's a quirk with 1969.
Although the season officially had 17 tropical storms or hurricanes, only 13 were actually named, Rappaport said. The other four were reclassified as tropical storms - but never given names - long after the season ended. New technology applied to old data resulted in the reclassifications. ILLUSTRATION: Graphics
STORM NAMES
Since 1950, tropical cyclones that grow into tropical storms with
sustained winds in excess of 39 mph have been given names.
Originally, the names were drawn from the phonetic alphabet. Then,
women's names were used. Eventually, men's names were added,
alternating from storm to storm.
There is a different list of names for Atlantic, eastern Pacific
and central Pacific storms. All are selected by international
convention and take into account the cultures of the areas involved;
thus the Atlantic list has a strong Spanish influence.
There are six lists of 24 names used annually in the Atlantic.
Thus, names used this year will be used again in 2001. But names are
retired when a storm is particularly devastating, as were hurricanes
Andrew and Hugo. This year's hurricanes Luis and Marilyn may be
candidates for retirement, because of the extensive damage they
caused.
Below is the list of storm names for this year (those not yet
used noted in bold) and the next few years.
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Allison Arthur Ana Alex Arlene Alberto
Barry Bertha Bill Bonnie Bret Beryl
Chantal Cesar Claudette Charley Cindy Chris
Dean Diana Danny Danielle Dennis Debby
Erin Edouard Erika Earl Emily Ernesto
Felix Fran Fabian Frances Floyd Florence
Gabrielle Gustav Grace Georges Gert Gordon
Humberto Hortense Henri Hermine Harvey Helene
Iris Isidore Isabel Ivan Irene Isaac
Jerry Josephine Juan Jeanne Jose Joyce
Karen Klaus Kata Karl Katrina Keith
Luis Lili Larry Lisa Lenny Leslie
Marilyn Marco Mindy Mitch Maria Michael
Noel Nana Nicholas Nicole Nate Nadine
Opal Omar Odette Otto Ophelia Oscar
Pablo Paloma Peter Paula Philippe Patty
Roxanne Rene Rose Richard Rita Rafael
Sebastien Sally Sam Shary Stan Sandy
Tanya Teddy Teresa Tomas Tammy Tony
Van Vicky Victor Virginie Vince Valerie
Wendy Wilfred Wanda Walter Wilma Willi
TRACKER'S GUIDE
Tropical cyclone data is from the National Hurricane Center and
includes latitude, longitude and maximum sustained winds.
Tropical Storm Noel
Date Time Lat. Long. MPH
9/29 11 p.m. 19.4 40.2 75
9/30 5 a.m. 19.7 40.0 75
11 a.m. 19.9 39.6 70
5 p.m. 20.1 39.9 60
Tropical Storm Opal
Date Time Lat. Long. MPH
9/29 11 p.m. 20.8 88.2 359/30
5 a.m. 21.1 88.3 35
11 a.m. 21.8 88.5 45
5 p.m. 21.8 89.6 50
To hear updates from the National Hurricane Center, call INFOLINE
at 640-5555 and enter category 1237.
by CNB