The Virginian-Pilot
                             THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT 
              Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.

DATE: Wednesday, October 4, 1995             TAG: 9510040059
SECTION: DAILY BREAK              PAGE: E1   EDITION: FINAL 
SOURCE: BY RICKEY WRIGHT, STAFF WRITER 
                                             LENGTH: Medium:   99 lines

COUNTRY MUSIC AWARDS SINGERS WHO ARE LIKELY TO WALK AWAY WITH THE BIG PRIZES TONIGHT

THE COUNTRY MUSIC craze of the early '90s has given way to the country music craze of the mid-'90s. How you feel about that may depend on your reaction to performers noted more for their video-friendly looks than musical artistry.

But expect some cream to rise to the top on tonight's telecast of the 1995 Country Music Association Awards.

Like the Grammys, the CMAs celebrate the generally conservative middle of the road. With the likes of Garth Brooks, Patty Loveless, Alison Krauss, the Mavericks and David Ball nominated for major trophies, however, there's certainly less to complain about than there might be.

Here are some educated guesses (and wishes) about some of the big categories:

Entertainer of the Year. The show's host, Vince Gill, is one of the most-respected country stars among his peers, and his live shows are more than impressive. It's gotta go to Reba McEntire one of these years, though. Garth Brooks was off the road all year. Brooks & Dunn have become so dependably bland that even the CMA might not notice them. And Alan Jackson probably won't have his feelings hurt too badly, because he's likely to win in several other races.

Will win: Gill

Should win: Gill

Album of the Year. Although Alison Krauss' ``Now That I've Found You'' was disqualified after its nomination (much of its material had been previously released), the simple fact of its recognition by the CMA is cause for hope. Patty Loveless' ``When Fallen Angels Fly,'' which replaced it on the short list, best represents the straightforward, truth-telling approach she shares with Krauss. Higher-profile discs like Jackson's ``Who I Am'' and John Michael Montgomery's self-titled third album have better shots at taking home the title. Despite Gill's worthiness in the Entertainer of the Year slot, his ``When Love Finds You'' will be an also-ran here - as will George Strait's ``Lead On.''

Will win: ``Who I Am''

Should win: ``When Fallen Angels Fly''

Single of the Year. The CMA's voters could go truly strange, if not outright deranged, by choosing Shania Twain's ``Any Man of Mine,'' a far greater irritant than ``Achy Breaky Heart'' ever was. Jackson's ``Gone Country'' is a favorite of the industry, though, as is Krauss and Union Station's cover of Keith Whitley's ``When You Say Nothing at All.'' The latter is bound to be a sentimental favorite because of its association with the late Whitley. As for the Tractors' ``Baby Likes to Rock It'' and Tracy Byrd's ``Keeper of the Stars,'' the nomination will have to be enough.

Will win: ``When You Say Nothing at All''

Should win: ``When You Say Nothing at All''

Male Vocalist of the Year. On sheer talent and artistry, Vince Gill. A close second on the ballots: Alan Jackson. Less likely winners are Montgomery, Strait and John Berry.

Will win: Gill

Should win: Gill

Female Vocalist of the Year. After nearly a decade of great records, Krauss' radio breakthrough came as a direct result of her unerring gift (and, yeah, a little smart promotion). That could push her right into an upset of Loveless, McEntire, Mary Chapin Carpenter and Pam Tillis.

Will win: Tillis

Should win: Krauss

Horizon Award. A slate of commercial favorites makes this one tough to call, but the most-promising award could go to Twain, whose album ``The Woman in Me'' is double platinum. Or the perception of her stardom as a flimsy, video-engineered phenomenon and Krauss' true artistic promise might be taken into account. If so, Krauss could get it. Ball is too much an outsider (never mind his fistful of hits), and Berry and Faith Hill have seen success, though not the explosive kind usually recognized with the Horizon.

Will win: Twain

Should win: Krauss

Song of the Year. Another strong batch of nominees marks this writers' category. ``Don't Take the Girl,'' a Craig Martin/Larry W. Johnson hit for Tim McGraw, is shamelessly mawkish even by Nashville's standards. It was a huge hit, but McGraw's absence from the other categories signals the CMA's basic lack of interest.

David Ball's ``Thinkin' Problem'' (written by Ball, Allen Shamblin and Stuart Ziff) is a fine honky-tonker in the classic mode, ``Gone Country'' (Bob McDill) a wry kick at music-biz cash-ins, ``Independence Day'' (Gretchen Peters' song, cut by Martina McBride) is a great feminist statement and ``How Can I Help You Say Goodbye'' (Burton Banks Collins and Karen Taylor-Good, recorded by Loveless) a generally un-mawkish response to grief.

Will win: ``How Can I Help You Say Goodbye''

Should win: Anything but ``Don't Take the Girl'' ILLUSTRATION: Color photo

Vince Gill will be host for ceremonies honoring the best of country

music.

Photo

Alison Krauss is in the running for top female vocalist.

by CNB