THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Thursday, October 5, 1995 TAG: 9510050006
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A14 EDITION: FINAL
TYPE: Editorial
LENGTH: Medium: 61 lines
This headline in Monday's Virginian-Pilot, ``Norfolk in top 10 declining cities,'' raised City Hall eyebrows an inch or two.
Norfolk City officials didn't dispute the Census Bureau report that Norfolk had lost nearly 20,000 residents since 1990, from 261,250 to 241,426. That 7.6 percent loss wasn't news to the city. University of Virginia population estimates for Norfolk show a slightly larger shrinkage.
What irked officials was the word ``declining.'' Norfolk issued a one-page report that began, ``A decreasing population base does not mean Norfolk can be characterized as a declining city. When statistics are carefully evaluated, a very different picture emerges.''
The city has a point.
The 1994 Census figures are based not on a head count but on births and deaths, school enrollment, tax returns, building permits and estimates of military populations. In Norfolk, that last category is the big one.
City officials said the most recent estimate available to them for military personnel living on base or aboard Norfolk-based ships was 47,157 in 1993, down 17,756 from 1990. Despite military downsizing, some of that loss is expected to be recovered. Fourteen new ships are to be homeported here this year, with an estimated 3,450 crew and about 1,700 families. In 1993, the Navy demolished its 603-unit Ben Moreell housing project. Work is under way on 388 replacement homes. The city predicts up to 1,696 additional military people will live in Ben Moreell when it reopens in the fall of 1996.
From 1990-94, Norfolk had a net decrease of 726 homes or apartments. One reason was the city's effort to reduce concentration in such areas as Ocean View and Park Place. With redevelopment continuing, the city said, the net loss in housing units may continue for a few years. The city, however, expects some rebound in population as new units are constructed.
The city report said that in addition to the transient military population there is ``a strong core group of residents who have made a commitment to this city by virtue of home ownership.'' Latest survey figures, for 1992, showed the home-ownership rate at 46.4 percent, up from 44 percent in 1990.
The number of students in Norfolk public schools has increased slightly, from 36,026 on Sept. 1, 1990, to 36,378 this past Sept. 1.
Probably the best news in the new census figures is that this Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) retained its national ranking as the 27th-largest, despite military and shipyard downsizing.
``If the whole MSA were losing numbers,'' said Hampton Roads Planning Commission Executive Director Art Collins, ``that would be important.'' A large drop in ranking, especially a drop out of the top 50 MSAs, would reduce this area's ability to recruit businesses, he said, but that didn't happen. The Hampton Roads MSA increased from 1.4 million in 1990 to 1.53 million in 1994.
The local star in growth, of course, was Chesapeake, whose population increased by 28,595, from 151,982 in 1990 to 180,577 in 1994. The city's 18.8 percent growth over four years made it the eighth fastest-growing American city with a population over 100,000. by CNB