THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Monday, October 16, 1995 TAG: 9510160022
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A4 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY STEVE STONE, STAFF WRITER
LENGTH: Medium: 69 lines
Having made a sharp U-turn in the Gulf of Mexico, Hurricane Roxanne plodded southeast Sunday and then slowed as if readying to turn again.
It seemed to be on the verge of completing a full loop, heading toward the same spot on Merxico's Yucatan where it exited the peninsula last week.
``It does look like it's headed for the same area,'' Mike Bono, a forecaster at The Weather Channel in Atlanta, said Sunday. ``It's still cranking and it's still wreaking some havoc.''
As bad as that possibility may be for Roxanne-weary Mexicans, however, forecasters expect something different and possibly more troublesome.
Several computer models used by the National Hurricane Center were in agreement on Sunday: instead of coming ashore where it might weaken over land, Roxanne may to cut a sharp right turn today and steer southwest just offshore in the Bay of Campeche.
That would bring tropical storm-force - and possibly hurricane-force - winds to the coast for 24 to 36 hours.
And it could also dump huge amounts of rain in areas flooded by Opal two weeks ago and the first passage of Roxanne last week.
``Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are possible over portions of eastern Mexico,'' said Richard Pasch, a meteorologist at the Hurricane Center in Miami. ``These rains could produce flash floods and mud slides, particularly in mountainous areas that have already received very heavy rains.''
At 5 p.m. Sunday, Roxanne was about 135 miles north of Ciudad del Carmen, Mexico and expected to begin moving south or southwest near 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 85 mph and little change in strength was expected overnight. Hurricane-force winds in excess of 74 mph extended 115 miles from the center and tropical storm-force winds of 39 to 74 mph extended up to 200 miles, mainly to the west of the center.
The calendar may finally be having some impact, however, on this, the busiest Atlantic hurricane season since 1933.
Colder air is starting to stream out of the north and that will eventually calm the tropics and draw down warm ocean and Gulf water temperatures. Roxanne could feel the effects of that.
``Cool, dry air has invaded the Gulf and it should be entering into the circulation of Roxanne,'' Bono said. ``Some weakening is certainly possible if this drier air penetrates to the center.''
Even without that, there was good news Sunday for U.S. Gulf coast residents. ``The further this moves south and east, the less of a threat it is to the U.S. mainland,'' Bono said, adding that Roxanne ``will likely burry itself in Mexico.''
Still, this hurricane has defied forecasters several times already.
``You just can't rule out anything until it dies over land. . . strange things happen at this time of year with hurricanes,'' Bono said. But Roxanne's demise would be welcome, he added: ``It's been around too long already.'' ILLUSTRATION: TRACKER'S GUIDE
Tropical cyclone data from the National Hurricane Center includes
latitude, longitude and maximum sustained winds.
Hurricane Roxanne
Date Time Lat. Long. MPH 10/10 11 p.m. 20.2 87.8 10010/11 5 a.m.
20.0 88.9 8511 a.m. 19.9 89.5 755 p.m. 19.7 90.6 75
To hear updates from the National Hurricane Center, call INFOLINE
at 640-5555 and enter category 1237.
For complete tracking data on any storm, including barometric
pressure, direction and extra positions, write THR, P.O. Box 13191,
Chesapeake, Va. 23325-0191.
by CNB