THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Saturday, November 4, 1995 TAG: 9511040461
SECTION: BUSINESS PAGE: D1 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY MYLENE MANGALINDAN, STAFF WRITER
LENGTH: Short : 49 lines
A trio of Old Dominion University professors is assembling a set of local economic indicators that will help Hampton Roads business people and others forecast activity in key industries such as shipping and tourism.
``We're hoping to provide this as a service to the community,'' said Gilbert R. Yochum, chairman of the economics department at Old Dominion and one of the three professors heading the project.
The Old Dominion Forecasting Project, which began to take shape in June, is the result of President James V. Koch's desire to apply the university's resources to help the community, Yochum said.
The Old Dominion team consists of Yochum, economics professor Vinod B. Agarwal, and finance professor Mohammad Najand. It will present quarterly and annual forecasts of nine different indicators.
Based on monthly data, the local indicators will apply to tourism, retail sales, employment, unemployment, shipping and home building. Data from the entire Hampton Roads metropolitan area will be used.
The group will provide national forecasting indicators of inflation and short-term and long-term interest rates. They also will compile a stock index that compares local stocks against national stocks, Yochum said.
The professors will use econometrics and state space modeling, which are methods of analyzing and comparing time series data. This will enable them to link local economic activity to national and state economic activity. The team will release its first forecast in January.
``I think this is something individual businesses would very much want to have,'' Yochum said.
Yochum suggested, for example, that construction contractors could anticipate how to allot their resources if they know in advance that demand in the housing market will drop in a month.
They might be able to concentrate more money in another sector of their business if they know how the business cycle will move, he said.
Prospective home buyers or consumers might use the ODU forecast of interest rates to help them decide whether to buy big-ticket items like houses. ILLUSTRATION: Photo
Gilbert R. Yochum
KEYWORDS: HAMPTON ROADS ECONOMY ECONOMIC FORECASTING by CNB