THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc. DATE: Friday, November 24, 1995 TAG: 9511240107 SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A6 EDITION: FINAL SOURCE: ASSOCIATED PRESS DATELINE: WASHINGTON LENGTH: Medium: 55 lines
One of every 92 young American men - those ages 27 to 39 - may be battling the AIDS virus, according to the most precise estimates yet of the epidemic's toll.
The sobering numbers show minorities are especially hard hit, with one of every 33 young black men estimated to be infected in 1993, according to the report in this week's journal Science. The 1993 data is the latest available.
If the trend continues, ``the threat of AIDS may become a rite of passage'' for young people, said study author Philip Rosenberg of the National Cancer Institute. ``That's a very disturbing future.''
The government already has warned that AIDS is threatening more and more young adults. In January, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced that AIDS in 1993 became the No. 1 killer of people ages 25 to 44.
If AIDS was killing that many, how many others were alive with the HIV virus, posing the potential for the disease's continued spread? And because HIV typically causes no symptoms for 10 years, just how young were these people infected?
Rosenberg's study is the most precise look at HIV prevalence to date.
People ages 18 to 25 experienced a rapid rise in HIV infections between 1986 and 1992, during the same time when older Americans' risk of HIV infection leveled off, Rosenberg found.
Those youthful infections meant people ages 27 to 39 were the most likely to be alive with HIV in January 1993, he reported. He calculated that one of every 139 young white men was living with HIV then, as was one in 33 young black men and one in 60 Hispanics.
Women were over four times less likely to be infected, he calculated. One of every 1,667 white women ages 27 to 39 had HIV in January 1993, as did one in 98 black women and one in 222 Hispanics.
The numbers probably have not changed much since 1993, primarily because it takes so long for HIV to kill an individual, said CDC AIDS expert John Ward.
KEYWORDS: AIDS STUDY by CNB