THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Wednesday, November 29, 1995 TAG: 9511290011
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A12 EDITION: FINAL
TYPE: Letter
LENGTH: Medium: 63 lines
President Clinton frequently exhibits a lack of conviction, but he appears to believe strongly that the United States must join a peace mission in the Balkans. He may be betting his presidency on Bosnia.
Monday he tried to persuade the American people by describing the need to stop the killing, rape, torture and shelling of civilians. He contrasted Sarajevo during the Olympics with the shell-shocked city of today. He spoke of American leadership and values. He even trotted out Pope John Paul II.
Yet he hasn't made the sale. Polling after the speech revealed that people are about evenly divided over the mission. The USA Today-CNN-Gallup Poll showed a majority of the people think American interests aren't at stake in Bosnia, that America will still be regarded as a leader even if we decline to send peacekeepers and that the mission will ``lead to a long-term commitment involving many casualties.''
The public has a pretty clear-eyed assessment of the risks. Yet those polled also agreed 53-40 that the United States has a moral obligation to send troops.
The logic of events has brought us to the point where a carefully defined U.S. involvement is necessary. We left Bosnia to our European allies for almost four years during which no progress was made. We enforced sanctions against the aggressors and probably should have armed the victims. Finally, our air power helped bring the parties to the table where we were instrumental in brokering a peace agreement.
Clinton now argues that our participation is required if the agreement is to have a chance. That, of course, is the $64,000 question. Does this deal have a chance? Already the Bosnian Serbs are calling for renegotiation over the status of Sarajevo and threaten to break the peace.
Clinton speaks of the ``realistic goals'' and limited timetable of our participation. We - along with troops from France, Britain and other nations - are to keep the belligerents separated long enough for a year while a political settlement takes hold. Clinton says U.S. troops under U.S. command will strike back with overwhelming force if attacked. He acknowledges that some U.S. casualties are likely and that the peace deal could unravel. If civil war again breaks out, we presumably will withdraw.
Though skeptical (and who isn't?), Sen. Bob Dole appears inclined to support his president and take a political risk of his own. Other Republican presidential candidates oppose any U.S. troop presence in Bosnia. Congress is likely to let Clinton have his way - and the blame, if things go badly. It will claim a piece of the glory if things go well.
The American people obviously aren't immune to the appeal Clinton makes. They don't like the images of death on the nightly news and are willing for the United States to help, if it can. But the public rightly supports only a peacekeeping role and will not tolerate a quagmire. This fight isn't ours. If the peace fails, we must get out of the crossfire at once. There's no dishonor in not being able to achieve the impossible.
Congress will debate the issue. As long as the mission remains as described, taking a strictly limited risk is not unreasonable. But doubters are right to believe that the odds for success are long. There can be no peace in the Balkans until its inhabitants genuinely desire it. by CNB