THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Thursday, November 30, 1995 TAG: 9511300010
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A14 EDITION: FINAL
TYPE: Editorial
LENGTH: Medium: 53 lines
Because the military is thorough, there will be studies and hearings in Virginia Beach to gauge the effect of a personnel increase at Oceana NAS from 8,069 to 13,000.
But no elaborate study is needed to guess that the effect is likely to be about the same as the effect of water on a man in a desert. It isn't every day that 5,000 jobs drop from heaven. Virginia Beach can't help but be enthusiastic about a timely shot in the arm.
Attention will be paid to any possible negative impact on air quality, plant and animal habitats, land use, cultural resources and transportation, but the community will care most about the positive impact on the tax base and the economy.
Recently staff writer Karen Weintraub described a less than upbeat five-year forecast presented to City Council. It anticipates slow growth, waning prosperity, an aging housing stock, a greater demand for government services at the same time that less help from state and federal government can be expected.
Forty percent of the revenues of Virginia Beach now come from Richmond and Washington. If the government downsizing sought by a Republican Congress and Gov. George F. Allen occurs, localities are going to feel its trickle-down effects. For every 5 percent decrease in state and federal spending, Virginia Beach will have to find $15.6 million in new funds or cut back services.
Cutbacks being proposed at state and federal levels would mean less money for medical care and schools, for roads and the environment, for job training and welfare. Localities will feel the pressure to replace some if not all of the lost government services.
And insofar as less government spending means less in the pockets of citizens, localities will feel the squeeze a second way: in reduced consumer spending and tax revenues. That's why the Oceana news is particularly welcome.
Most localities that have depended on a military presence are getting hit with a double whammy. But the cities of Hampton Roads are lucky - and unusual - in being on the other side of the equation. The squadrons that Oceana is gaining, for instance, are being lost by California and Florida.
Virginia Beach can rejoice at the Oceana news but can't afford complacency. The larger presence at Oceana may help offset other cutbacks, but the overall trend is clear. Cities are going to have to rely more on their own resources. That will translate into leaner services and a continuing search for ways to keep the local economy and tax base growing. It won't be easy. by CNB