THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Wednesday, December 13, 1995 TAG: 9512120074
SECTION: ISLE OF WIGHT CITIZEN PAGE: 04 EDITION: FINAL
TYPE: Education
SOURCE: BY LINDA McNATT, STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: ISLE OF WIGHT LENGTH: Medium: 67 lines
IT'S HAPPENING ACROSS the country, and it's no different in this rural county, a consultant told the School Board last week.
Crime is driving people out of the cities, and the rural lifestyle is attracting them to the country.
``This is what we call amenities-drawn growth,'' demographics consultant John M. Wardwell told the board at its meeting Thursday. ``In a lot of places, rural areas near large cities are experiencing similar growth. People are seeking the quiet lifestyle as commuting changes take place.''
Wardwell's presentation comes as the School Board is trying to plan for the future and decide what schools need to be built and where in order to accommodate what Wardwell said could be considered explosive growth in Isle of Wight.
``The thought that's in my mind is explosive,'' Wardwell said. ``But I'd recommend, right now, that you adopt a moderate-growth model.''
That's because there are so many factors that could change things.
``We can look all around us and businesses are streamlining and laying off,'' board member James Brown said. ``In my lifetime, I have never seen Congress debate so long in passing a budget. This area is heavily federally impacted. Loss of federal jobs here could certainly affect the private sector.''
And that's exactly why the job of predicting what will happen in the future in order to determine how many schools will be needed and how large they should be is so difficult, Assistant Superintendent Alex Decker said.
The Windsor Middle/High School, which opened last year, is probably a perfect example of planning what looked right at the time, Decker said. When that school was built, the agreement to bring sewerage into the southern end of the county hadn't been definitely decided. Once that decision was made - and now that it's a sure thing Windsor will connect with the Hampton Roads Sanitation District - the middle/high school already is too small to accommodate even moderate growth.
Cypress Creek, the 450-home subdivision proposed near Smithfield, is another example, Decker told the board.
``Those people have invested substantial dollars to put in a highway interchange and a golf course that will probably be here as early as next year. Mr. Wardwell is saying that it will be six years before something like that will impact the schools.''
The ``single most useful indicator'' the board can use is the cost of new housing, Wardwell said. Upscale homes under construction or planned in local communities usually will attract established families with older children, those ready for middle or high school, he said.
Low or moderately priced homes attract younger families that haven't yet had children or have younger children. Wardwell called the cost of housing ``the best predictor'' the board can use to determine how rapidly local schools will need to grow.
``You're working under very fortunate circumstances here,'' Wardwell said. ``The indicators you need to monitor are here, and they give you lead time.''
The board is scheduled to meet in a continued session at 4 p.m. Thursday to see what other consultants have to say about acting on Wardwell's predictions.
The School Board meets in the Board of Supervisors meeting room at the Isle of Wight Courthouse.
KEYWORDS: ISLE OF WIGHT SCHOOL BOARD by CNB