THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1995, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Monday, December 18, 1995 TAG: 9512180033
SECTION: LOCAL PAGE: B1 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY STEVE STONE, STAFF WRITER
LENGTH: Long : 248 lines
If the Old Farmer's Almanac is on target, Hampton Roads has a shot at a white Christmas.
The granddaddy of almanacs is calling for sleet and snow from Christmas Eve through Dec. 27 for Virginia and Maryland. Alas, Tar Heel elves are not so lucky; rain is forecast in North Carolina.
As for the nation's official forecasters - armed with satellites and high-speed computers - they won't have a detailed outlook for the holiday until later this week.
The National Weather Service does have a general outlook for the winter months, however. It is calling for normal to above-normal temperatures and near-normal rainfall in the mid-Atlantic coastal area.
While a lot of science goes into fashioning the long-range outlook, even the experts offer it up with a blunt disclaimer: ``It's how we think the dice are loaded,'' said Russell Martin, a meteorologist with the Climate Analysis Center near Washington, which issues 30- and 90-day forecasts.
That said, the forecast ``tilts'' toward warmer than usual weather in January, February and March.
``The whole Southeast quarter of the nation has a pretty good chance of above-normal temperatures,'' Martin said. Precipitation ``is an honest coin flip,'' he said. ``There's no enhanced probability one way or the other.''
The long-range forecasts are based on elaborate computer analysis of global weather trends and phenomena.
For cold weather fans, Martin said, the best bets in the nation for deep chills through March are the Pacific Northwest and the northern Great Plains. Those preferring dry weather can head to Florida, the Great Lakes region or central California. And for rain seekers, the Southwest, from Arizona through Texas, and the Mississippi Valley should be considered.
If specificity is important for winter weather planning, get an almanac.
The science may be weak, but almanacs, available at most bookstores, are a traditional treasure-trove of information - helpful and mundane - and most include a detailed weather forecast for the year.
The almanacs break the country into regions, and the borders differ from book to book; some have Virginia and North Carolina together, while others put the states in different regions.
Each almanac publisher offers a staunch defense of the forecasting techniques used, although - like Coca-Cola with its drink mix and McDonald's with its secret sauce - all decline to offer any hint of the meteorological formula.
Without stealing all the details, here are some winter highlights from three almanacs, with a graded look at their success in predicting the surprise storm that dumped more than a foot of snow on western Virginia earlier this month:
The Old Farmer's Almanac: The general outlook is for above-normal temperatures and much heavier than normal precipitation through March. Snowfall is expected to be below normal in February but above normal in March.
Specifics: sleet and snow for Dec. 24 through 27; a big winter storm Jan. 12 through 17; and two snowstorms in March, the first March 1 and 2, the second March 19 through 21.
Dec. 7 snowfall (B+) - Freezing rain and snow had been predicted for Dec. 4 through 11, but no mention was made of a major storm. An interesting aside: The Old Farmer's Almanac did call for a major winter storm in western parts of Virginia a week earlier.
Harris' Farmer's Almanac: The general outlook favors a fairly normal winter with temperatures slightly below normal through December, above normal in January and February, and below normal again in March. Only February is forecast to have above-normal precipitation.
Specifics: a major winter storm at the end of December; possible heavy snow and ice Jan. 6 through 8 and Jan. 29 through 31; and a ``major storm possible'' at the end of February.
Dec. 7 snowfall (F) - That was supposed to be the warmest period of the month, with no precipitation.
Farmers' Almanac: The book calls for big fluctuations between warm and cold weather through December, with a warm trend toward year's end. A generally normal weather pattern is forecast until February, which is expected to be cold.
Specifics: a storm moving into Virginia Jan. 16 through 19, followed by very cold weather; another storm at the end of January, bringing some snow to Virginia and the mountains of the Carolinas; a major winter storm Feb. 24 through 29 in the Southeast, with snow from Georgia through the mid-Atlantic states.
Dec. 7 snowfall (D+) - Unseasonably mild weather had been forecast for that period. For Dec. 8, a major snowfall of a foot or more was forecast . . . in New England and upstate New York.
While it may be fun to wonder well in advance what will happen, winter weather is no joke in much of the country.
More than 100 people are killed annually, many because they make bad decisions about what to do and how to go out in winter weather.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said 30 to 35 people die annually from heart attacks brought on by overexertion when they try to clear snow from driveways and walkways. An equal number die from falls on ice and other weather-related accidents, not including traffic accidents. And one in 10 winter-weather fatalities is the result of someone freezing to death.
The big danger in winter is not just low temperatures or heavy snow, however. Winds are a threat, too.
Strong winds, even when the temperature is above freezing and the sky is sunny, can cause serious injury from exposure by rapidly stealing heat from a person's skin.
Military forecasters responded to that threat years ago by developing the ``wind chill index,'' which combines the actual temperature and wind speed to create a temperature that reflects what it ``feels'' like outside.
The best defense against severe wind chill is to stay indoors. MEMO: WINTER WEATHER SURVIVAL GUIDE
Although they're rare, severe winter storms can hit Hampton Roads.
And even when the immediate coastal area escapes heavy snowfall, inland
areas can be hard-hit. The advice below is for the worst conditions, but
much of it applies even in a routine winter storm.
Terminology
Winter storms occur in several forms, such as heavy snowstorms,
blizzards and ice storms. Each in its own way is a potential killer.
Knowing the terminology will help you judge whether you face
inconvenience or danger.
Winter storm watch - A notice that severe winter weather may develop.
It does not mean severe conditions are certain. Keep alert for later
forecasts.
Winter storm warning - Severe winter weather is occurring or is
expected during the next 12 hours with heavy snow - or a combination of
snow and blowing snow - that will create very dangerous travel
conditions.
Blizzard warning - The most dangerous winter weather condition. It
makes most travel impossible. Severe cold and high winds could kill
anyone who becomes stranded. Winds will exceed 35 mph, and visibility
will be less than one-quarter mile.
Other terms used by the National Weather Service in winter forecasts
include:
Snow - If this word is used without a qualifying word, such as
``intermittent'' or ``occasional,'' it implies steady, continuous snow
over several hours.
Heavy snow - Implies a snowfall of 6 inches or more in a 12-hour
period; 8 inches or more in a 24-hour period.
Snow flurries/showers - Describes intermittent snow with short
duration and no significant accumulation.
Freezing rain and freezing drizzle - Indicates precipitation that
freezes as it strikes the ground and other surfaces to form ice.
Wind chill - The combined effect of low temperature and wind on the
body.
Preparation
Before, and during, a storm, listen to the latest weather forecasts
and statements on radio, television or NOAA weather radio or call
INFOLINE. Take these precautions at home:
Have a battery-powered radio, emergency cooking facilities, and
flashlights or lanterns with spare batteries or extra fuel.
Be certain you have an adequate heating fuel supply.
Stock groceries for several days and include nonperishable,
ready-to-eat foods. Also, stock bottled water, especially if you rely on
well water provided by an electric pump.
Have an adequate supply of essential medicines.
Be cautious of fire from overheating stoves, fireplaces, heaters or
furnaces. Never use an untended kitchen stove for home heating. Fire
departments may have trouble responding to calls during a heavy
snowfall.
Avoid overexertion. Take your time shoveling snow and doing other
outdoor activities. Heart attacks are a major cause of death during and
after winter storms.
Keep vehicles fueled; it may be difficult to get gasoline in a
storm.
Clothing
For greatest warmth, wear several layers of loose-fitting,
lightweight, warm clothing as undergarments. For instance, a light
cotton work shirt worn under a wool shirt.
For protection from wind and snow, outer garments should be tightly
woven and water-repellent.
A hat is very important: Most body heat is lost through the top of
the head. Hooded garments are excellent; they protect the head and face.
Cover the mouth to ensure warm breathing and protect the lungs from
bitterly cold air.
Mittens that are snug at the wrist provide better protection to hands
than fingered gloves.
Winter travel
Travel during the winter can be dangerous. The warmth and shelter of
your vehicle can make you forget about the extreme conditions outside.
And nature can close roads and highways, despite the best efforts of
road maintenance crews.
Use good judgment in determining whether to start or continue your
trip.
Check the heating and cooling system, ignition, exhaust, fuel
systems, battery, wipers and lights.
Install snow tires and check their pressure and tread. Change to
winter-grade oil. Check the antifreeze and windshield washer fluid.
Prepare and carry a winter storm kit suited to your travel needs. The
list below is organized based on needs ranging from urban to rural
driving. If you travel outside urban areas, especially off major
highways or in back country, you should carry everything:
Winter clothing such as wool caps, mittens, overshoes.
A transistor radio with extra batteries; a citizens band radio.
Flashlight with extra bulb and batteries.
Windshield scraper; tire chains; booster cables; small bag of sand;
shovel; pliers, screwdriver and adjustable wrench.
Two or more blankets or a sleeping bag.
Detailed road maps.
Waterproof matches; candles.
High-calorie, nonperishable food needing no cooking; bottled water;
enamel cups; safety pins.
First aid kit.
Two empty 3-pound coffee cans with lids for candle-burning and
sanitation; large box of facial tissues; plastic bags.
If you become stuck in a winter storm or stalled in a blizzard,
beware of overexertion and overexposure. Do not panic. Work slowly.
Pushing vehicles or shoveling heavy drifts in strong, biting winds and
bitter cold may lead to heart attack.
Stay in the vehicle. Do not attempt to walk and find help.
Disorientation occurs quickly in blowing and drifting snow. Becoming
lost in open country during a blizzard could mean death. Vehicles
provide protection from the weather and are quite likely to be observed
by highway maintenance crews or rescue workers.
Beware of the silent killers of carbon monoxide poisoning and oxygen
starvation. Freezing, wet snow and wind-driven snow can seal a vehicle.
Run the motor and heater sparingly and keep a downwind window slightly
open for ventilation. Check the tailpipe to make sure it is not blocked
by snow or ice.
Exercise from time to time to stimulate circulation, warm extremities
and relieve tense muscles. Occasional clapping of the hands and vigorous
moving of arms and legs is recommended. Turn on the dome light at night
to make the vehicle visible to work or rescue crews. Also tie a colored
cloth to the radio antenna to aid vehicle visibility in daytime.
Keep watch. Do not let all occupants of the vehicle sleep at once.
ILLUSTRATION: Chart
FLAKE FACTS
Average annual snowfall in Hampton Roads is 7.6 inches. Based on
National Weather Service standards, the area has experienced two
blizzards, one in 1980 and the other in 1989.
Continual weather observations began in Norfolk in 1871.
Inches Date< 1 17.7 Dec. 27, 1892
2 14.2 Feb. 17-18, 1989
3 12.4 Feb. 6-7, 1980
4 11.4 Dec. 11-12, 1958
5 11.0 Feb. 7, 1936
11.0 March 2, 1927
11.0 Dec. 2-3, 1896
8 9.9 March 1-2, 1980
9 9.8 Jan. 19, 1893
10 9.7 Feb. 9-10, 1948
A storm on Feb. 16, 1798, reportedly dumped 40 inches of snow
that piled up in 6-foot-high drifts.
On March 16-18, 1841, a three-day storm left 30 inches of snow.
KEYWORDS: WEATHER by CNB