THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Monday, January 22, 1996 TAG: 9601200179
SECTION: BUSINESS WEEKLY PAGE: 12 EDITION: FINAL
SERIES: Forecast 1996
SOURCE: BY MYLENE MANGALINDAN, STAFF WRITER
LENGTH: Medium: 75 lines
Hampton Roads' tourism industry will shine in '96. Or it'll dim a bit. Take your pick of the tourism forecasts.
This is one of those years when the specialists disagree.
Many tourism professionals in Hampton Roads express optimism that 1996 will bring even better returns than previous years.
However, the Olympic Games in Atlanta and the national political conventions are among the major events that might steal tourists away from Hampton Roads, say some industry watchers.
Plus, if reports of a soft economy and debt-strapped, penny-conscious consumers are true, Americans may opt to take fewer vacations or not take one at all.
All of those factors could hurt Hampton Roads' tourism industry, which includes some 350 hotels and motels with summer employment exceeding 14,000, as well as attractions such as Waterside, the festival marketplace in Norfolk that generated $1.9 million for the city last year.
``The tourism business will be flat with some possibility of a downturn,'' predicted Donald J. Messmer, a marketing professor at the College of William and Mary.
``I would be very surprised if we had a year as good as this year,'' Messmer said. ``We're going to have to work very hard at it. The economy's not going to help us out a great deal. And there are going to be a couple other major distractions in the country.''
The Bureau of Business Research at William and Mary forecasts that total visitation to attractions on the Peninsula would increase a little less than 4 percent. That's about the same as the bureau's 3.9 percent estimate for 1995.
``Our prediction is it'll be flat,'' said Roy Pearson, director of the bureau, about the local tourism industry. ``Last year was a pretty good year: good attendance, lodging sales, retail sales. This year we've got quite a few negatives: slower income growth state and nationwide, slower job growth in Virginia and the rest of the nation. Additionally we've got more competition this year.''
Hampton Roads will do better than Virginia as a whole because it draws more local and state visitors than national and international tourists, Pearson said.
Others disagreed with the forecast for a flat '96. For example, the Old Dominion University Forecasting Project estimated hotel revenue in Hampton Roads would total $423.5 million this year, 7.1 percent more than in 1995. Some marketers predicted a similar upturn.
``We're still seeing some of the same trends: shorter and more frequent trips,'' said Norfolk marketing director Sam Rogers, who also oversees the regional initiative called the Virginia Waterfront. ``That really plays to what we try to do.''
Rogers said that the Olympics and other events will attract different types of visitors than the ones lured to Hampton Roads.
``It's a different type of vacation experience,'' he said. Those looking for a vacation at the beach or an adventure exploring their colonial roots with their family may not chose to go to the Olympics.
``I don't think the Olympics are going to affect us too much,'' said James B. Ricketts, director of Virginia Beach Department of Convention and Visitors Development. ``A lot of that is corporate business and people coming in internationally.''
He said the region's offseason business has been buoyed by efforts like the Beach's holiday lights program and its two new attractions, the amphitheater and the remodeled Virginia Marine Science Museum. ILLUSTRATION: Staff photo
Tourists helped Tidewater's 350 hotels and motels produce an
estimated $395 million in revenue last year.
KEYWORDS: TOURISM HAMPTON ROADS by CNB