THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Tuesday, February 13, 1996 TAG: 9602130230
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A1 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY JOHN KING, ASSOCIATED PRESS
DATELINE: DES MOINES, IOWA LENGTH: Long : 117 lines
Sen. Bob Dole won Iowa's Republican presidential caucuses Monday night as Pat Buchanan emerged from the GOP field to offer a conservative challenge in next week's pivotal New Hampshire primary.
Former Tennessee Gov. Lamar Alexander ran third and hoped that would be enough to give his cash-poor campaign a fresh start for the five-week blitz of primaries likely to settle the nomination fight.
All the candidates vowed to press on, but Iowa's results were sobering to publishing heir Steve Forbes, who was a distant fourth, and may have dealt a fatal blow to Texas Sen. Phil Gramm, who ran fifth.
President Clinton was unopposed in the state's Democratic caucuses, and the bruising nature of the Republican race was a vivid reminder of Clinton's luxury.
``Winnowing'' is the word Iowans use to describe the process, a polite way of saying that they take even the most confused and jumbled cast of candidates, such as this year's GOP field, and quickly cut it down to manageable and orderly size.
``Iowa sets and dismantles expectations,'' said Arthur Miller, political science professor at the University of Iowa. ``People come into Iowa and it becomes even more important in toppling expectations than fulfilling them.''
Republicans who faltered here and never recovered include John Connally, Phil Crane, John Anderson, Pete du Pont, Alexander Haig and, in 1980, Dole, the GOP front-runner this year in his third try for the presidency. The list of Iowa's Democratic victims is longer.
Monday night, rivals rushed to assert that Dole's win was hardly convincing, noting that he ran 10 points behind his 1988 showing here. But Dole said his was hardly a weak showing, telling a victory rally, ``We withstood a barrage of millions and millions and millions of dollars of negative advertising and came out on top.''
With 92 percent of the vote counted, Dole had 26 percent, to 23 percent for Buchanan. Alexander had 18 percent, Forbes 10 percent and Gramm 9 percent. Buchanan closed the Iowa campaign imploring supporters of anti-abortion longshot Alan Keyes to rally to his side and will head to New Hampshire wishing he had been more successful: Keyes got 7 percent, a remarkable showing given his shoestring budget.
Buchanan's campaign manager, sister Bay Buchanan, was ecstatic, saying ``there's only one conservative left in this race . . . we now go to New Hampshire with clear proof we can win this nomination.''
New Hampshire is a Buchanan stronghold, the state where he got 37 percent to spark his 1992 primary run against President Bush. But Dole vowed not to stumble there this time as he did after Iowa got him off to a winning start in 1988.
Alexander said the results proved Dole a fragile front-runner and while congratulating Buchanan, he said the former White House adviser's protectionist trade views were ``dead wrong.'' He said Iowa had winnowed the GOP contest to a three-man battle, as if Forbes did not exist.
``I look forward to a race in New Hampshire with Senator Dole and Pat Buchanan.''
Forbes took issue, insisting fourth place was ``a good springboard into New Hampshire.'' But just two weeks ago, Forbes was threatening Dole for the lead, riding the crest of a $4 million TV ad budget that shattered all records in the state.
The Iowa voting took place in 2,142 precinct caucuses and closed a nearly year-long campaign in the state. It appeared that turnout would fall short of 100,000, below the 1988 total and way below the record 130,000 predicted by state Republican leaders.
Among caucus-goers, Buchanan was the clear choice of those who described themselves as very conservative or members of the religious right. In an entrance poll, one fifth of the caucus-goers said they settled on their choice in the last three days; of those, Alexander and Buchanan were the clear beneficiaries.
Dole was the overwhelming choice of Iowa's elderly voters, and caucus-goers said Dole' age - he is 72 - would make no difference in his ability to be president. Iowans were split on the flat tax, Forbe's premiere issue, over the existing system - and even the flat-taxers preferred Dole and Buchanan to the millionaire publisher.
For Buchanan, Iowa was a sweet surprise. Just a week ago he had modest goals here, but used his upset of Gramm in last week's Louisiana caucuses to make the case to social conservatives that he was a stronger candidate than Gramm - against both Dole and Clinton.
In advance, Dole rejected the notion that he should be judged by his 1988 showing, noting the field was smaller then and that for a month he has been the main target of Forbes' relentless attack ads.
Faring poorly were three others on the ballot, Indiana Sen. Dick Lugar, Illinois businessman Maurice Taylor and U.S. Rep. Bob Dornan of California.
Alexander's standing began improving a week ago and appeared to come mostly at Forbes' expense. Late polling showed increasing skepticism of Forbes' flat tax plan, and suggested voters assigned Forbes much of the blame for the Iowa campaign's decidedly negative tone.
With all the negative advertising, voters complained there was little opportunity for the Republican candidates to clarify their differences over how to shrink the federal government, devise a simpler tax system, reduce or forbid abortions and send power back to states and communities.
For Dole, Iowa represented the first step in his third bid for the GOP nomination, and nothing less than a win would do in a contest he won in 1988. ``I'm ready for the people to make a judgment,'' he said. MEMO: The Washington Post also contributed to this story.
ILLUSTRATION: Color photos and graphic
[the candidates]
[Christian Coalition's Impact
Critics and supporters say the Chesapeake-based Christian Coalition,
founded by religious broadcaster Pat Robertson, outmuscled many
other group in getting out the vote in Iowa. The coalition also
distributed about 250,000 voter guides in church pews last weekend.
In exit polls, about one-third of caucus-goers indentified
themselves as Christian conservatives, and Coalition Executive
Director Ralph Reed Jr., said Manday that one in caucus-goers is a
member.]
KEYWORDS: CHRISTIAN COALITION IOWA CAUCUSES by CNB