THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Wednesday, February 14, 1996 TAG: 9602140390
SECTION: LOCAL PAGE: B1 EDITION: NORTH CAROLINA
SOURCE: BY MASON PETERS
STAFF WRITER
LENGTH: Medium: 75 lines
President Clinton's popularity continues to sag in North Carolina and front-running Republican Robert Dole would easily win if the presidential election were held today, a poll indicates.
The U.S. senator from Kansas would capture 52 percent of the state's ballots and Clinton 37 percent, according to a poll by Mason-Dixon Media Research of Columbia, Md. The survey of 844 registered voters was released Tuesday.
A three-way presidential race with Independent Ross Perot in the running would ``significantly'' improve Clinton's chances, the poll showed, with Dole's margin over Clinton shrinking to 41 percent to the President's 37 percent. In such a race, Perot would draw 9 percent of the ballots with 13 percent undecided, the survey reported.
If retired general Colin Powell was in the presidential race as a Republican, 46 percent of North Carolinians interviewed said they would vote for him, the Mason-Dixon poll showed, with 36 percent supporting Clinton. Only Dole had a higher rating than Powell against Clinton in the survey.
``In 1992 Clinton barely lost North Carolina at a time when he was more in favor with voters,'' said Brad Coker, director of Mason-Dixon
``It continues to look like it will be even more difficult for him to win in a two-way contest in November,'' Coker said. ``Only 29 percent of North Carolina voters currently indicate they are inclined to re-elect Clinton, while 42 percent say they will vote to replace him.
``This is reinforced by the fact that Clinton continues to trail all potential Republican challengers.''
The poll, taken in telephone interviews between Feb. 7 and Feb. 9, has a 95 percent probability that the ``true'' figure would fall within that range if the entire state population were sampled, Coker said.
All of the Mason-Dixon statistics were tabulated before Monday's Iowa Republican caucuses that put Dole on top with Pat Buchanan in a surprising second place.
Steve Forbes, the wealthy magazine publisher, Sen. Phil Gramm,and several other GOP candidates trailed in Iowa. The GOP hopefuls who brought up the rear included Lamar Alexander, Richard Lugar, Bob Dornan, Alan Keyes and Maurice Taylor.
Buchanan's second-place Iowa showing reflected his increasingly popular posture among many North Carolina Republicans
But when asked how they rated the principal GOP candidates, 245 likely Republican primary voters in North Carolina favored Dole by a large majority. Some voters did not recognize the candidates' names therefore all the totals do not add up to 100 percent.
Of the 844 voters polled, 50 percent were women and 50 percent men. Whites numbered 671, or 80 percent, blacks 171, and others 2. Queried were 280 Republicans, 491 Democrats and 73 Independents.
Clinton's job appraisal remained mixed among those polled.
Statewide, 37 percent said they thought Clinton's performance in office was ``excellent'' or ``good'' - up from 35 percent - while 39 percent rated it as ``poor'' between 1993 and 1996, Coker said.
Geographic areas polled included northeastern N.C., with 174 interviews; Greensboro-Winston-Salem, 155 interviews; Raleigh-Durham, 118 interviews; Charlotte, 164 interviews; southeast N.C., 108 interviews; and Western N.C., 125 interviews.
Dole's 52 percent to 37 percent lead over Clinton this year remains close to the 53 percent to 39 percent figures reported in a similar 1995 sampling, Coker said.
Among women voters, 37 percent said they would replace Clinton and 31 percent said they would re-elect him.
Among blacks, 77 percent said they would re-elect the president and only 7 percent would replace him.
KEYWORDS: POLL GOP CANDIDATES REPUBLICAN CANDIDATES PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION by CNB