THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Sunday, February 18, 1996 TAG: 9602170016
SECTION: COMMENTARY PAGE: J5 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: KEITH MONROE
LENGTH: Medium: 77 lines
Virginia's Gov. George Allen jumped on the Bob Dole bandwagon this week. It didn't require him to be especially nimble. The bandwagon is rolling slowly and could still wind up in the ditch.
Allen's embrace of Dole is a bit odd. He isn't exactly Allen's kind of Republican. Besides, Dole won a surprisingly narrow victory in Iowa last week over Pat Buchanan and is barely leading him in New Hampshire. Until Dole showed himself to be more of a winner, you might have expected the governor to keep his powder dry.
But Iowa removed Phil Gramm from the race and badly damaged Steve Forbes. While Dole is hardly setting the world on fire, the field is shrinking and Dole still appears to have the best chance to capture the nomination. If you aren't aboard a bandwagon near the beginning of the ride, you don't get full credit at the end of the trip.
Allen may well have concluded he can't afford to get left behind because he'll need a job a year after a President Dole takes office. And Washington is where a lot of out-of-work governors go to find visible employment. Richard Thornburgh of Pennsylvania, Tom Kean of New Jersey, John Sununu of New Hampshire and Lamar Alexander of Tennessee all come to mind.
Unfortunately, the Dole campaign may have less to offer middle Americans in the way of employment security. It's a big issue that no one is really talking about. Forbes promises that tax cuts for the prosperous will lead to an era of prosperity for all, but middle Americans have heard that siren song before.
Buchanan offers economic security through protectionism, but the case he makes isn't very persuasive. Dole says he's got experience and Alexander says he's younger than Dole, nicer than Buchanan, less nutty than Forbes and more conservative than Clinton. Yet Clinton leads most challengers in hypothetical polls.
This is a guy who only won the job because a third-party candidate took an unprecedented 19 percent of the vote and a sitting president rested on his laurels. Clinton sneaked into office with only 43 percent of the vote and his popularity has rarely risen above 50 percent. Nagging character questions have kept his negatives high. Taking the presidency ought to be a picnic for Republicans, yet Clinton threatens to eat their lunch.
The first Republican Congress in two generation gave into hubris and tried to go too far too fast. It attacked sacred cows, appeared intent on playing reverse Robin Hood, misinterpreted its mandate, lost the support of the middle of the country, lost the public-relations battle to Clinton and got beaten on vetoes.
The GOP has compounded its problems by offering a field of second-string candidates for the highest office. The list of those who chose not to challenge a weak president is bafflingly long. Jack Kemp, Dick Cheney, Bill Bennett, James Baker and Colin Powell who is one of the most popular men in the country and seemingly could have had the nomination for the asking.
One problem for the Republicans simply comes with the majority territory. Like Democrats when they were in charge, the GOP must hold together a disparate coalition in constant danger of flying apart. Roosevelt was the magic glue that kept incompatible constituencies together for Democrats.
Ronald Reagan played that role for Republicans, but there is no one in the field today that unites so many factions. Together all the aspirants may add up to one good Gipper. Buchanan appeals to the social conservatives that Reagan helped attract to the party. Forbes has targeted the entrepreneurial growth and opportunity crowd that responded to Reagan's California optimism. Behind Alexander's plaid flannel work shirt lurks the kind of pinstriped soul Wall Street could warm to.
Oddly, Dole has least in common with Reagan, expect for a certain heartland authenticity. But in Reagan it expressed itself as Main Street expansiveness. In Dole, it comes across as prairie caution, thrift, and sometimes suspicion. He's actually got a lot more in common with Nixon.
Certainly, none of the Republicans in the race has so far shown Reagan's ability to rally all these conflicting aspirations in one big tent. And if none can, Clinton might just defy the odds, the polls and the electoral college arithmetic and win himself four more years, not because of any enthusiasm for him but because he's none of the above. MEMO: Mr. Monroe is editor of the editorial page. by CNB