THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Friday, March 1, 1996 TAG: 9603010501
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A1 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY WARREN FISKE, STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: COLUMBIA, S.C. LENGTH: Long : 161 lines
Every four years, South Carolina voters seem to wipe the blood off a staggering presidential front-runner, nourish him and send him sprinting toward the Republican nomination.
Just ask George Bush, who came limping into the state in 1988 and 1992 after weak showings in Iowa and New Hampshire and won decisive victories here against religious broadcaster Pat Robertson the first time and conservative commentator Pat Buchanan the next.
This year, Bob Dole has come reeling in. And after a considerable first-aid effort by the state's Republican establishment, polls are suggesting that Dole is well-positioned to survive a strong challenge from Buchanan to claim a much-needed victory Saturday in South Carolina's GOP primary.
More is at stake here in this small, rural state than just its 37 delegates. The four leading Republican candidates all hope to leave South Carolina with a surge of momentum as they prepare for primaries and presidential caucuses that will follow in 19 other states by March 12.
South Carolina is also the first of seven Southern states that will hold presidential primaries in early March. The campaign here offers an important benchmark of which candidates and issues can galvanize Dixie - a vital swing region in the fall's elections.
The campaign has been a decidedly nasty affair, marked by negative advertising and verbal assaults from each of the four major candidates - Dole, Buchanan, Lamar Alexander and Steve Forbes. Almost half of an hourlong debate on Thursday was consumed with each candidate accusing another of starting the fray.
Beneath the din, however, Dole and Buchanan have engaged in vital debate over the economic future of the South in a state where creating jobs, according to polls, is the No. 1 issue on voters' minds.
Dole's lead seems testament to his deep campaign organization and close ties to the state's Republican establishment. He has been strongly endorsed by the state's three most influential Republican leaders: former Gov. Carroll A. Campbell Jr., Gov. David M. Beasley and Sen. Strom Thurmond. The trio has accompanied Dole throughout much of the week.
Dole has waged an aggressive, often negative campaign against Alexander and Buchanan. His strategy has been to narrow the Republican race down to a choice between himself and Buchanan. The senator believes he can come out ahead in such a match-up by focusing attention on a Buchanan agenda that is often described as extremist.
That means Dole must eliminate Alexander, who has been competing with the senator for much-needed moderate votes. ``The sooner this gets down to a two-way race, they better off we are,'' said Warren Tompkins, a senior Dole strategist.
To that extent, Dole has run blistering television ads all week claiming Alexander was soft on crime and raised taxes 58 times when he was governor of Tennessee in the 1980s. ``Isn't Lamar Alexander too liberal?'' the ad intones.
Alexander, who says the commercial is untrue, has responded with attack ads characterizing Dole as old and washed up. ``After 35 years in Washington, Bob Dole is out of fresh ideas,'' an announcer says. ``Isn't it time for new leadership? Isn't it time to move on?''
Dole has hardly uttered a word about Buchanan since being criticized by religious right leaders last month for calling his chief rival an ``extremist.''
But he's still getting the message out through surrogate speakers such as Campbell.
``I think his rhetoric is so extreme that it incites people many of us don't want to associate with,'' Campbell said Sunday on a nationally broadcast talk show. He also said Buchanan is ill-equipped to be president.
``We're asking a man who's read a book to perform brain surgery on the country,'' he said.
Campbell has much at stake in this election. He is widely believed to be on Dole's short list of vice presidential prospects. But perhaps more important, Campbell is a staunch free-trader who lured $7.4 billion in foreign investment to the state when he was governor from 1986 to 1994, creating 33,000 new jobs.
Campbell has crossed the state warning that Buchanan's protectionist trade policies could be dangerous.
``If he continues with his America first, nobody-else-to-trade-with policy, he'll bring us to a recession at the least and probably a depression, if he's elected,'' Campbell said.
Dole and Campbell have underscored the free-trade theme this week by holding a rally at the Port of Charleston, the site of South Carolina's burgeoning export business, and leading reporters through a tour of a BMW plant in Greer that employs 1,700 and announced plans this week to expand.
``We're for progress,'' Dole told plant workers. Buchanan, he claimed, ``is living in the past.''
Buchanan, in contrast, has spent much of his time in rural South Carolina holding rallies in front of abandoned textile plants. The mills have become a metaphor for Buchanan's protectionist policies. The state has lost 15,000 textile jobs this decade.
Buchanan says the loss is largely to companies moving their plants into Mexico and Central America where unskilled labor can be found for 75 cents an hour.
Buchanan argues that many of the laid-off textile workers have been cast aside and lack the skills to land jobs at new hi-tech plants such as BMW.
``We're going to put a spotlight on those who have been left behind,'' Buchanan said Wednesday. ``We're going to put a spotlight on all the people who lose in these deals cut by `Beltway Bob' and the bellhop of the business round table.''
Buchanan also is courting Christian conservative voters, who political scientists say may comprise at least 40 percent of the state's electorate.
Although all the Republican candidates say they are personally opposed to abortion, only Buchanan has pledged to try to outlaw the procedure, even in cases of rape.
But many evangelicals are wondering whether Buchanan is ultimately electable to the White House. While they applaud his stand on social issues, some say they will back Dole because they believe he has the best chance of beating Bill Clinton in November.
``For religious conservatives, it's a two-way race between Dole and Buchanan,'' said Mike Russell, a spokesman for the Chesapeake, Va.-based Christian Coalition.
Forbes, fresh from a breakthrough victory last Tuesday in Arizona, appears to have little organization or support in South Carolina. Although he has peppered the airwaves with commercials touting his flat tax plan, Forbes waited until Thursday to make his first campaign appearance in South Carolina and has virtually conceded the state to Dole.
``Sen. Dole has a formidable lead here,'' Forbes said. ``He should win easily.'' ILLUSTRATION: Graphics
SOUTH CAROLINA
``GATEWAY TO THE SOUTH''
WHAT IT IS: The first Southern primary of the 1996 Republican
presidential campaign season
WHEN: Saturday
AT STAKE: 37 delegates. Of those, 19 are at-large delegates
awarded to the winner. The other 18 are awarded, three each, to the
top vote-getters in the six congressional districts.
WHO CAN VOTE: Any registered voter. There is no registration by
party.
HOW IMPORTANT IS IT?
The timing is critical. There is no clear front-runner in the GOP
race yet, and the South Carolina primary serves as a springboard to
a surge of 19 primaries and caucuses March 5-12, the most intense
one-week competition in the history of nomination fights. Seven of
those contests are in the South.
It could become a referendum on the New Economy. South Carolina
has become a microcosm of the economic change that has gripped the
nation: The closings of textile and apparel mills in South Carolina
have, by one estimate, cost the state 15,000 jobs. But the same
open trade laws that contributed to the demise of the textile mills
have spawned an economic revival. The state attracted a record $5.4
billion in announced capital investment last year, including $1.8
billion by international firms.
LEADING CONTENDERS
The Virginian-Pilot
SOURCES: Associated Press; Washington Post; Houston Chronicle
HOW WE COMPARE
The Virginian-Pilot
SOURCES: U.S. Bureau of the Census; Bureau of Labor Statistics
[For complete graphics, please see microfilm]
KEYWORDS: REPUBLICAN PARTY PRIMARY ELECTIONS PRESIDENTIAL
RACE by CNB