THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Sunday, March 17, 1996 TAG: 9603150031
SECTION: COMMENTARY PAGE: J5 EDITION: FINAL
TYPE: Editorial
SOURCE: KEITH MONROE
LENGTH: Medium: 87 lines
Bob Dole may have peaked a tad too early. He's undoubtedly happy to have locked up the Republican presidential nomination in record time, but what happens now?
Spring training isn't even over. The vote for president won't take place until after the World Series. In between stretch eight months largely devoid of action.
Oh sure, Pat Buchanan will keep barging around the country and the TV universe calling Bob Dole an enemy of the people. President Clinton will continue to claim the future of America would be bright if only Bob Dole and his good friend Newt Gingrich weren't enemies of the people.
And Dole can be counted on to hang around the Senate giving the thumbs-up sign and saying things like: ``Bob Dole wants to pass a clean CR and get the legislation back on track as soon as we get Clinton outta there or whatever.''
Only two pieces of drama are left before the fall campaign commences. Political junkies including the press can be expected to focus on them ad nauseam. First, how many mainstream voters will Buchanan scare away from the party at this Republican convention if they let him speak in prime time? Second, who will Dole choose as a running mate?
Most of the heavy breathing so far concerns Colin Powell, perhaps because polls show the only way Dole can beat Clinton is with Powell on the ticket. Dole fans the flames by saying he's sure that Powell would answer if he heard the call of duty once again.
But it isn't very likely. First, the polls are nonsense at this early date. By mid-October the race will be 45-45 unless a third party (with large ears and a larger mouth) gets in the race. Second, Powell's not conservative enough to shore up Dole's weaknesses at that end of the spectrum.
Finally, Powell had a good shot at the Republican nomination for president and chose not to exert himself. Why would he settle, belatedly, for the second spot? Besides, in his press conference renouncing a presidential bid Powell specifically ruled out seeking any political office in 1996 - president, vice president, senator, whatever. Powell's appeal is he's not a politician, i.e., he's a man of principle. People trust him to keep his word. If he reneges on this, he'll be rightly seen as just another pol.
So who will Dole pick? Someone young and healthy since Dole's age and medical history will be a factor in voters' minds. But not so young and green as to pose the Dan Quayle, not-ready-for-prime-time problem. That would appear to rule out otherwise attractive young Republicans like John Kasich of Ohio.
Dole also needs someone who can bring along parts of the Republican coalition where he is weak - social conservatives, Kempian supply-siders, blue-collar Buchananites, the Perotistas. That will rule out moderates like William Weld of Massachusetts or those suspect on social issues like Christie Whitman of New Jersey.
Finally, Dole will want someone who brings some electoral college clout to the game, who helps him win a state in doubt. That's why George Allen makes no sense and never did. Virginia has too few electoral votes, and it's going to go Republican no matter what.
In fact, Dole has to assume he's got a lock on the Plains, the Mountain West and the South with the possible except of Florida - if Clinton can spook senior citizens over the future of Medicare and Social Security. On the other side, if Clinton can't count on the Northeast and a few border states, he's dead. That leaves the battleground states of California and the industrial Midwest - especially the same quartet voting in primaries this Tuesday - Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin and Illinois.
There's a motherlode of electoral votes there, and if Dole can take some from Clinton the game is over. Unfortunately, the Republican officeholders in those states are largely moderates, have no national profile, lack charisma or all three.
Gov. George Voinovich of Ohio and Gov. Tommy Thompson of Wisconsin have been highly effective, but they are bland and unknown. John Engler of Michigan is more conservative, a lot feistier but resembles the late Richard Daley of Illinois. He's also got a hard edge, rather like Dole himself. One's enough.
Pete Wilson of California would once have been ideal. Now, however, his popularity in his own state is questionable. He's not exactly a Republican revolutionary and he's suspect on the choice issue.
Sens. Connie Mack of Florida and John McCain of Arizona are possible, but two members of the Senate on the ticket may be one too many. Gov. Terry Branstad of Iowa is too much Midwest. William Bennett has no base. Dole loaths Jack Kemp. Retreads from the Bush administration - Dick Cheney, Jim Baker - would be seen as just that. With one exception.
No wonder Powell's name keeps coming up. MEMO: Mr. Monroe is editor of the editorial page of The Virginian-Pilot. by CNB