THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Sunday, March 24, 1996 TAG: 9603230048
SECTION: DAILY BREAK PAGE: E1 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY MAL VINCENT, MOVIE CRITIC
LENGTH: Long : 269 lines
OSCAR TIME is here and never, but never in Academy Awards history have we had a race quite this wide open.
With just one day to go, movie fans are divided in their loyalties to the point of open dissension. Arguments are heard by the water coolers and in restaurants throughout the land. There is no clear leader in any of the major categories. Anything can happen.
Are you pulling for the pig, the kilts, the space guys, the Brits or the Italians? (That's ``Babe,'' ``Braveheart,'' ``Apollo 13,'' ``Sense and Sensibility'' or ``The Postman.'') You can make a case for any of them to win Monday when, for the 68th time, the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences bestows its golden statuettes on the top achievers of the year.
The annual task of predicting the winners becomes a horror under these conditions. Wiser critics have merely backed out of the game this year. But when the going gets tough, the tough . . . well, the tough will probably guess wrong.
But isn't it fun after last year's landslide for ``Forrest Gump'' and recent multi-wins for ``Schindler's List'' or ``Dances With Wolves'' to sorta mix things up this year? And mixed up it is. Two of the best-picture nominees don't even have their directors nominated. For the first time since 1973, a foreign-language film is nominated.
One thing is for sure: This rite of spring is going to get the same huge audience it always gets, in spite of the fact that several of the nominees this year are unknowns. The Academy claims that 1 billion viewers will watch. When you consider that the broadcast will be beamed, either live or by delay, to most of the developed world, the claim seems plausible.
What must all those people think of us as they watch the proceedings? Near-naked folk in borrowed jewels and black ties, crying and fawning over golden statuettes! There is a vague fear that Rome might have been something like this, just before the fall.
In Hampton Roads, the show begins at 9 p.m. Monday on WVEC, Channel 13. Earlier, at 6 p.m. on cable's E! channel, viewers can get a glimpse of all the arrivals. (What IS that she's got on?)
Whoopi Goldberg will be the hostess - proving that she's a brave soul after David Letterman's disastrous floperoo last year, and her own mixed reviews when she was a rather tame emcee two years ago. ``I'm ready for anything,'' Goldberg said in an interview.
With a new producer, Quincy Jones, the show promises to be hipper - if, perhaps, even longer. Jones has hinted that he believes the winners should be given longer to revel in their moment of glory. Pass the Visine, please.
There will be 43 commercials. Cost to advertisers: $795,000 for 30 seconds, a 16 percent increase over last year's record rate.
Enough stalling. It's time to look in our own, private, envelope and come up with a sure-fire forecast of who will win in each major category. (With the fervent hope that by Monday night you will have misplaced this newspaper and won't remember the predictions.)
BEST PICTURE
The nominees: ``Apollo 13,'' ``Babe,'' ``Braveheart,'' ``The Postman,'' ``Sense and Sensibility''
``Babe'' supporters seem to be the loudest. Can the little porker bring home the bacon?
One suspects that some of those folks who claim they're pulling for ``Babe'' so fervently are doing it because they'd just like to see the Academy embarrassed. It would be a hoot, wouldn't it?
Actually, ``Babe'' proved that personality is more important than species. It even has some previous wins in its favor - the National Society of Film Critics and the Golden Globe.
But the Academy has always felt that family movies were too simple to take the top prize. Search your memory, and you'll remember that nominees like ``E.T.,'' ``The Wizard of Oz'' and ``Beauty and the Beast'' didn't win. ``Babe'' is a long shot here.
Even a longer shot is ``The Postman.'' In Italian with English subtitles, it is the first foreign-language film to be nominated since ``Cries and Whispers'' in 1973. Before that, there have been only three other foreign-language nominees in this category: ``Grand Illusion,'' ``Z,'' and ``The Emigrants.'' None of them won.
``The Postman'' is a rare, literate, film that hails the value of the written word, but it owes its nomination to one of the shrewdest and best financed Oscar campaigns in years. Miramax Films, repeating its successful campaign for ``The Crying Game'' from a few years ago, made everyone in Hollywood aware of ``The Postman.'' The studio even staged poetry readings.
``Braveheart,'' a rare return to epic filmmaking, could win. It got 10 nominations, more than any other film, and we predict its director will win. But, at three hours, it was much too long, and Oscar voters are likely to want to spread the awards around this year.
Until a few weeks ago, ``Sense and Sensibility'' was the frontrunner, coming off its Golden Globe win, but it hasn't stirred the box-office attention it might have. It's safe and politically correct, but if the voters wouldn't honor ``Howards End'' or ``Room With a View,'' are they going to go British now?
I think not. The winner is likely to be an All-American true story with true heroes. That's ``Apollo 13.''
It does have two things against it:
(1) It was released early in the year, and (2) it was a big public success.
Usually the Oscar voters don't go for either. But the deciding factor came a few weeks ago when Ron Howard, its director, won the Director's Guild Award and it captured the Producer's Guild honor. The fact that Howard isn't even nominated in the director's race here should help rather than hurt in the best-picture contest.
If ``Apollo 13'' wins, it will be the second consecutive year in which a major box office hit has taken the best-picture award. Last year, it was ``Forrest Gump.'' ``Apollo 13'' has the kind of epic look that Oscar voters traditionally seek.
Personal favorite: ``Sense and Sensibility''
Prediction: ``Apollo 13''
BEST ACTOR
The nominees: Nicolas Cage in ``Leaving Las Vegas,'' Richard Dreyfuss in ``Mr. Holland's Opus,'' Anthony Hopkins in ``Nixon,'' Sean Penn in ``Dead Man Walking,'' Massimo Troisi in ``The Postman''
The Italian actor Massimo Troisi literally gave his life for ``The Postman,'' delaying heart bypass surgery so that he could finish the film. He died days after it was completed, at age 41.
It's a dramatic story, but the only posthumous win in this category was Peter Finch for ``Network,'' in 1976. (Both Spencer Tracy and James Dean received posthumous nominations.)
Richard Dreyfuss, 48, had a crowd-pleasing role in ``Mr. Holland's Opus,'' but the Academy's refusal to nominate it in other major categories proves that it doesn't consider it a serious film. Dreyfuss, in 1977, was the youngest best-actor winner ever, for ``The Goodbye Girl.'' A repeat win is unlikely now.
Anthony Hopkins, 58, was brilliant as ``Nixon,'' even though he was not physically right for the role. But he won previously, for ``The Silence of the Lambs'' in 1991, and the voters are unlikely to vote for any Nixon brand, even if they liked Hopkins.
Sean Penn, 35, was brilliant as a lowlife, unsympathetic man on death row in ``Dead Man Walking,'' but he is a Hollywood rebel who may not even attend the ceremonies. Besides, he will probably have other chances.
That leaves the closest thing to a sure bet in the entire evening. Nicolas Cage, 32, with his first nomination, has won every major award for playing the hapless alcoholic in ``Leaving Las Vegas.'' He'll leave with the Oscar.
Personal favorite: Nicolas Cage in ``Leaving Las Vegas''
Prediction: Nicolas Cage in ``Leaving Las Vegas''
BEST ACTRESS
The nominees: Susan Sarandon in ``Dead Man Walking,'' Elisabeth Shue in ``Leaving Las Vegas,'' Sharon Stone in ``Casino,'' Meryl Streep in ``The Bridges of Madison County,'' Emma Thompson in ``Sense and Sensibility''
This race has been lackluster in recent years, but it surely isn't this time. All the nominees turned in fine performances, and several other actresses who did fine work failed even to get nominated. (These include Nicole Kidman in ``To Die For,'' Jennifer Jason Leigh in ``Georgia'' and Angela Bassett in ``Waiting to Exhale.'')
Elisabeth Shue, 32, is a relative newcomer. Voters may feel that the stardom that came with her ``Las Vegas'' role is enough of an award.
Emma Thompson, 36, has won before (for ``Howards End''). Besides, the voters are likely to honor her in the best-adapted-screenplay category for writing the very role she played. (She, incidentally, is the first actress to be nominated for a role she wrote.)
Sharon Stone, 37, has proved what I've been saying all along. She is a potentially fine actress, and a genuine movie star. She was the best thing in ``Casino,'' and she won the Golden Globe earlier. But she needs to pay her dues a good deal more before they're going to hand her Oscar.
The finest performance of those nominated is that of mahvelous Meryl, 46, who makes the ordinary seem extraordinary in ``The Bridges of Madison County.'' But she has won twice before (``Kramer vs. Kramer'' in supporting category and ``Sophie's Choice'' as best actress). A third win now would be a surprise.
The sentimental favorite is Susan Sarandon, 49, who is in the race for the fifth time, and has never won. Previously nominated for ``Atlantic City,'' ``Thelma and Louise,'' ``Lorenzo's Oil'' and ``The Client,'' she'll likely make it to the stage this time.
She and live-in companion Tim Robbins were banned from Oscar shows by producer Gil Cates, who was furious about their political statements while presenting an Oscar. Cates no longer is producing the show, and Sarandon has been making the talk-show rounds, acting classy and noncombative.
It helps that this time she played a nun, not a shady lady. The deciding factor is that she won the Screen Actors' Guild award for ``Dead Man Walking'' a few weeks ago. If the actors, who make up the biggest block of Oscar voters, make the same choice this time, Sarandon is in.
Personal favorite: Nicole Kidman in ``To Die For'' (who isn't even nominated). Of the nominees: Meryl Streep in ``The Bridges of Madison County''
Prediction: Susan Sarandon in ``Dead Man Walking''
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
The nominees: James Cromwell in ``Babe,'' Ed Haris in ``Apollo 13,'' Brad Pitt in ``12 Monkeys,'' Tim Roth in ``Rob Roy,'' Kevin Spacey in ``The Usual Suspects.''
James Cromwell, as the likable farmer on Babe's turf, would be a surprise. On the other hand, he's been making the social rounds in Los Angeles for months, and has appeared on every talk show.
A nod to him would be a nod to ``Babe'' and would take care of the little ham.
Tim Roth, 34, delivered a showy performance as an effete nobleman who turns out to be a swordsman and rapist in ``Rob Roy.'' The film, though, was released in April, almost a year ago, and lacks support.
Brad Pitt, 31, is regarded as a newcomer who has not yet paid his dues, and who will have other chances.
The race is between Kevin Spacey and Ed Harris. Spacey, 36, deserves it, but he's regarded by many voters as a New York theater actor - an outsider to the Hollywood scene.
Because he won the Screen Actors' Guild award, and because he's been turning in solid performances for years, Harris, 45, is likely to emerge the winner. He was the cheerleader back on the ground who would not accept failure as an option.
Personal favorite: Kevin Spacey in ``The Usual Suspects''
Prediction: Ed Harris in ``Apollo 13''
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The nominees: Joan Allen in ``Nixon,'' Kathleen Quinlan in ``Apollo 13,'' Mira Sorvino in ``Mighty Aphrodite,'' Mare Winningham in ``Georgia,'' Kate Winslet in ``Sense and Sensibility''
This is one of the closest races of the night, between Mira Sorvino's dumb blonde delight and Joan Allen's memorable portrayal of a hurt and betrayed Pat Nixon.
Sorvino, 25, has won most of the pre-Oscar awards, including the Golden Globe and New York Film Critics' award. She's this year's new darling.
On the other hand, Allen, 39, turned in a stunning performance and has previously won the Los Angeles Film Critics award as well as the National Society of Film Critics Award for the part.
She and Sorvino are evenly matched. It could go either way.
A close third, and one who might benefit from a split vote, is Kate Winslet, 20, who was a surprise winner of the Screen Actor's Guild award.
Less likely is Kathleen Quinlan, 41, who was mainly required to look heavenward and hope her man would get back home.
Mare Winningham, 36, was excellent, both as a singer and an actress, in ``Georgia,'' but not enough voters saw the film.
Personal favorite: Joan Allen in ``Nixon''
Prediction: Mira Sorvino in ``Mighty Aphrodite''
BEST DIRECTOR
The nominees: Chris Noonan for ``Babe,'' Mel Gibson for ``Braveheart,'' Tim Robbins for ``Dead Man Walking,'' Mike Figgis for ``Leaving Las Vegas,'' Michael Radford for ``The Postman''
There was a time when there was prejudice against actors invading this category. Paul Newman had trouble getting nominated.
But, since then, Warren Beatty, Clint Eastwood, Kevin Costner and Robert Redford have been honored in the category.
Mel Gibson, 40, directed a big, epic film that, while flawed, was a throwback to a time when Hollywood routinely turned out this kind of spectacle. His detractors may claim he did more to direct traffic than to direct the actors.
Personal favorite: Tim Robbins for ``Dead Man Walking''
Prediction: Mel Gibson for ``Braveheart''
Oscar notes:
The documentary-short category is usually of interest only as a tie-breaker in office pools around the country. This year, however, there is a local favorite to root for. Nominee ``The Living Sea,'' with music by Sting and underwater photography, is the wide-screen attraction that has been unreeling at Nauticus in downtown Norfolk since that the facility opened. It is, you might say, the longest-running film currently in Hampton Roads. Nauticus plans a celebration if its film's title is inside the envelope.
If ``The Living Sea'' wins, going to the podium will be its producers, Greg MacGillivray and Alec Lorimore. The competition comes from ``Jim Dine: A Self-Portrait on the Walls,'' ``Never Give Up: The 20th Century Odyssey of Herbert Zipper,'' ``The Shadow of Hate'' and ``One Survivor Remembers.'' Good luck to the ``Sea''!
Look for trends. If Ed Harris wins, it'll be a plus for ``Apollo 13's'' best picture hopes. If ``Apollo 13'' is shut out in award after award by ``Braveheart,'' then the space ship isn't going to fly.
A song of Virginia is a favorite in the ``Best Song'' category. ``Colors of the Wind,'' from ``Pocahontas'' will be sung by Vanessa Williams. It faces stiff competition from ``You've Got a Friend,'' from another Disney film, ``Toy Story.''
Look for ``Braveheart'' to take many of the technical awards, including cinematography and costume design.
Kirk Douglas will receive an honorary Oscar. (He was a favorite to win for his memorable role as Vincent van Gogh in ``Lust for Life'' three decades ago, but lost to Yul Brynner of ``The King and I.'')
If you'd like to make a public thing of Oscar night, you can dress up and go to the Commodore Theater in Portsmouth, where a big-screen telecast will benefit the Arthritis Foundation. ILLUSTRATION: Color photo illustration of Mal Vincent by MOTOYA NAKAMURA/The
Virginian-Pilot
Photo
UNITED ARTISTS
Nicholas Cage is nominated for best actor and Elisabeth Shue is
nominated for best actress in ``Leaving Las Vegas.''
by CNB