THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Wednesday, April 3, 1996 TAG: 9604030398
SECTION: LOCAL PAGE: B3 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: ASSOCIATED PRESS
DATELINE: ORLANDO, FLA. LENGTH: Short : 49 lines
The coming hurricane season is not expected to be as active as it was last year, but one expert believes there could be just as much - or more - of a threat to human life and property.
William Gray, a professor of atmospheric science who makes annual preseason forecasts of Atlantic Basin storms, predicted ``about average conditions'' for 1996 in a report for the 18th annual National Hurricane Conference.
But, he added, ``the potential of U.S. hurricane landfall could be just as large or larger than 1995.''
Gray noted in his written report that despite the near-record 1995 season, this country was spared from major damage except for Hurricane Opal, which took 20 lives and caused about $3 billion in damage in Florida, Alabama, Georgia and North Carolina.
Past records and changing wind and rainfall patterns indicate a possible increase in the strength of hurricanes striking the Eastern United States, Florida and the Caribbean basin within the next decade, he said.
Gray, who teaches at Colorado State University, will announce his updated forecast to the conference at its closing session on Friday. He said in November that he anticipated a below-average year with only eight named storms, five of them hurricanes.
He reported to the Orlando conference that his November projections may go up only 10 to 15 percent after the assessment of global weather conditions over the past four months.
The hurricane season runs from June 1 through the end of November. The 1995 season had the second-largest number of tropical storms, 19, and the second-largest number of hurricanes, 11, said Max Mayfield of the National Hurricane Center in Miami. It was the busiest year since 1933.
Opal was the most destructive. The storm first came ashore at Pensacola Beach, Fla., on Oct. 4, with winds estimated at about 125 mph. In addition to those killed in the United States, Opal killed 31 people in Guatemala and 19 in Mexico, Mayfield said.
More than 1,500 of the nation's hurricane experts, local emergency managers, evacuation officials and others gathered for the four-day series of educational workshops and panels.
KEYWORDS: HURRICANE SEASON by CNB