THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Saturday, April 6, 1996 TAG: 9604060276
SECTION: LOCAL PAGE: B3 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY STEVE STONE, STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: ORLANDO, FLA. LENGTH: Medium: 76 lines
The 1995 hurricane season - the busiest in 60 years - should not be considered a fluke, the nation's leading hurricane forecaster said Friday. Instead, William Gray warned, it may be a blueprint for the future.
``I think there may be trouble in the future,'' Gray told the closing session of the 18th annual National Hurricane Conference. He said people don't realize how few hurricanes have hit the Atlantic coast in the past quarter-century.
Gray said there is mounting evidence that global climate changes will cause a return to busier hurricane seasons, like those of the late 1940s, the 1950s and the early 1960s.
Forty-one hurricanes hit the mainland of the United States from 1940 through 1959, according to the National Hurricane Center in Tallahassee, Fla. In 1995, there were 11 hurricanes, five of which struck the U.S. mainland.
``We've been in this lull, this natural climate lull, that appears to be driven by the ocean circulations,'' Gray said. ``And that likely will be changing. And if it changes, we're going to see more landfalling category 3, 4 or 5 storms,'' the most powerful of hurricanes.
Gray, a Colorado State University professor of atmospheric sciences, fears that governments and coastal residents are ill-prepared for an extended period of heavy hurricane activity, an increase that could last for decades.
``Ominous things could be happening in terms of hurricane-spawned damage,'' Gray said. He noted that coastlines today are nothing like they were in the years soon after World War II. They have been built up dramatically, becoming home to millions.
Gray, forecasting for the season ahead, called for money to finance a national hurricane response program.
``I understand the earthquake people have a $50 million to $60 million -a-year program,'' he said. ``Well, we need it more!'' Gray said. His remarks drew strong applause from among the 1,500 conference participants.
``Hurricanes have killed more people and done about three to five times more damage than the earthquakes,'' Gray said. ``But the earthquake people get more money. How is that so?''
Bob Sheets, a former director of the National Hurricane Center, agreed.
``If you take the hurricanes of the '40s and '50s - with the wind patterns and tides they had - and overlay them with today's coastlines, you'd be in the $100 billion class'' in terms of losses, Sheets said. ``Any hurricane that strikes a metropolitan area is going to be a billion-dollar storm.''
And, Sheets complained, much of that loss could be significantly reduced if the federal, state and local governments would move swiftly to improve construction techniques and to retrofit existing buildings so they can better withstand high winds and flooding.
Gray said he didn't like to sound like a ``doom peddler,'' but added: ``It's mind-boggling to think what might occur'' with a return to more active hurricane seasons. ``There's no way the next 20 to 30 years will be like the last 20 to 30 years.''
Gray did take time to examine in detail his forecast for the upcoming hurricane season, which begins June 1.
He expects the season will be slightly busier than normal, though nothing like last year. But, that said, he reminded those at the conference that all it takes is one storm to wreak havoc.
Gray believes there will be 11 named tropical storms in the Atlantic or the Gulf of Mexico this year, of which seven will intensify into hurricanes with sustained winds in excess of 74 mph. Of those, he expects two will become major storms.
Gray uses a variety of global weather phenomena, combined with a detailed database of what has happened in the past, to reach his conclusions. He admits it's not foolproof.
``It's tough enough to predict whether it's going to rain tomorrow,'' he said.
KEYWORDS: HURRICANE SEASON by CNB