THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Thursday, April 11, 1996 TAG: 9604110006
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A12 EDITION: FINAL
TYPE: Editorial
LENGTH: Medium: 67 lines
Now that Bob Dole has nailed down the Republican presidential nomination, the electorate is mulling over a Dole-Clinton matchup in the fall.
Not surprisingly, Clinton's 20-point lead in the polls has begun to evaporate. As Republicans realize they won't have a choice of Steve Forbes, Lamar Alexander, Pat Buchanan, Colin Powell, Newt Gingrich or some other nominee, they have begun to coalesce around Dole.
A recent Times/CBS News poll shows Dole narrowing Clinton's lead to 49-39. It is a safe bet that by late October the race will be 45-45, assuming there is no third-party wild-card candidacy.
Though Clinton is less than wildly popular with members of his own party, he has raised huge amounts of money for the campaign and faced no primary challenge. Though many conservatives regard Dole as insufficiently zealous, he easily survived primary challenges.
This leaves the electorate with two centrists to chose from. No doubt they will spend much of the campaign calling each other extremists, but it simply isn't true. Clinton has disappointed his liberal base in important ways. Dole is equally unpalatable to many conservatives.
The race also pits two Washington insiders against each other, two professional pols who have been criticized for being compromisers rather than men of principle. In the same poll, people were asked if the candidates had more honesty and integrity than other people in public life. Only 41 percent said ``yes'' about Dole; only 35 percent about Clinton.
People were asked if they believed the candidates' decisions were not influenced by special interests. Only 32 percent thought Clinton was not influenced by special interests. Dole scored even worse at 29 percent.
On the character issue, Clinton is carrying a heavy load of baggage that can be grouped under the generic Whitewater heading. But Dole has a history of very cozy relations with corporate interests and has passed legislation favorable to heavy campaign donors. Clinton is vulnerable to charges youthful indiscretion, including philandering, but Dole has the age issue to deal with. Dole wins points for his heroic military service, but that issue is less significant as the World War II generation passes from the scene.
There's a real danger that the race will bog down in litmus tests, retrospective analysis of past positions and the airing of dirty laundry. Voters will take all that into account, but what they want to know about each candidate is what he's done for them lately and where he would lead the country.
Dole could probably be counted on to take a firmer line on cutting the deficit. That has been one fixed star in his career. But even Dole partisan Sen. John Warner thinks whichever man is sworn in next year will have no choice but to address the budget deficit, solve the entitlement mess, fix welfare and Medicare and return power to the states. That's the way the tide is running.
On the other hand, Democrats have exploited anxieties caused by the Republican revolution. Many voters worry that the safety net may be yanked out from under them. The Republican Party is less popular now than at any time in the past 12 years according to the Times/CBS poll. If the election becomes a referendum on Newt Gingrich instead of on Bill Clinton, Bob Dole could pay the price.
It is up to Dole to articulate his agenda for the future. Clinton is more glib, but polls suggest the voters are willing to be persuaded Dole's got a better case. It's up to him to make it. by CNB