THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Thursday, April 18, 1996 TAG: 9604180401
SECTION: LOCAL PAGE: B5 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY WARREN FISKE, STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: RICHMOND LENGTH: Medium: 51 lines
U.S. Sen. John W. Warner is staking out a lead over challenger James C. Miller III in the June 11 Republican primary election, according to a new poll.
The survey of 831 registered voters was conducted last Thursday through Saturday by Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research of Columbia, Md.
Of the 358 respondents who said they're likely to vote in the Republican primary, 47 percent favored Warner and 36 percent backed Miller. Last October, a Mason-Dixon poll showed Warner and Miller close to equal among likely Republican voters.
The survey shows that Miller has lost popularity among Republican voters in the past six months while GOP attitudes toward Warner have remained unchanged.
Thirty percent of likely Republican voters described their impression of Miller as favorable, while 19 percent said it was unfavorable. Last fall, Miller's positives outweighed his negatives, 37 to 7 percent.
Warner, in contrast, received 39 percent favorable and 25 percent unfavorable ratings.
Miller disputed some of the poll's findings. He noted that 43 percent of the participants said they were likely to vote in the primary when past turnout in such events has only been about 14 percent.
If you ``cut that 43 percent down to the 13 or 14 percent of the most-committed Republican voters, I come out all right,'' he said.
Brad Coker, president of Mason-Dixon, said voter turnout will be ``crucial in determining the winner of the primary.'' He said a low turnout could work to Miller's advantage. Miller and Warner are running even among those who said they have participated before in Republican primaries or caucuses.
But among those who said they have never participated in Republican nominating contests prior to this year, Warner holds a 59-to-25 percent lead.
``Warner will clearly benefit if turnout is high, as his appeal is stronger among a broader range of voters,'' Coker said. ``Miller's strength is greatest among the party faithful.''
The poll also suggests Warner may be the strongest candidate the GOP has. Among all respondents, the senator led businessman Mark R. Warner, the presumptive Democratic nominee, 56 to 24 percent. Miller led Mark Warner, 38 to 31 percent.
KEYWORDS: POLL U.S. SENATE RACE by CNB