THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Saturday, May 18, 1996 TAG: 9605170032
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A12 EDITION: FINAL
TYPE: Letter
LENGTH: Short : 44 lines
The Virginian-Pilot published an article about a decline in AIDS case based on 1995 AIDS data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. While we do think there is encouraging news to report, the interpretation of the data as reported needs some clarification.
We estimate that in 1995, the number of new people diagnosed with AIDS - or AIDS incidence - increased approximately 3 percent to 5 percent. Thankfully, this rate is much lower than earlier years in the epidemic. As recently as 1991, the rate of increase was 15 percent. The epidemic appears to be slowing overall, reflecting the important progress that has been made in mounting successful HIV-prevention efforts.
The 7 percent decline reported is not actually a decline in AIDS incidence but, rather, a decline in the number of AIDS cases reported to CDC in 1995 compared with 1994. The decline is an artifact of recent changes to the AIDS-surveillance-case definition which has caused a fluctuation in AIDS reporting over the past three years.
Because of these changes and possible delays between the time when an individual is diagnosed with AIDS and the time when that case is reported to CDC, the number of AIDS cases reported annually to CDC is not equivalent to the AIDS incidence. All of the cases reported to CDC in 1995 were not diagnosed in 1995, and many of the cases diagnosed in 1995 have yet to be reported. CDC researchers must estimate AIDS incidence by using a consistent formula over time to adjust for reporting changes and delays.
While our data do not show a decrease in AIDS incidence, the news of only a small increase is still encouraging. Hopefully, with continued commitment to prevention, we will begin to see actual declines in AIDS incidence in coming years.
HELENE D. GAYLE, M.D., director
National Center for HIV,
STD and TB Prevention
Atlanta, April 29, 1996 by CNB