THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Sunday, May 19, 1996 TAG: 9605170023
SECTION: COMMENTARY PAGE: J4 EDITION: FINAL
TYPE: Editorial
LENGTH: Medium: 74 lines
The stretch of Virginia between Fairfax County and Virginia Beach was dubbed the Golden Crescent in the 1980s. The label seemed proper for the state's growth spot, its financial and population center, its happening place.
Reality never meshed perfectly with theory. But in concept, it was BMWs and Saabs in the Crescent, Chevy pickups and Ford Escorts to the west. Burgeoning suburbs east, withering towns to the west. Overcrowded classrooms east, economic-development gambits west.
Some political campaigns fit neatly into the pattern. Doug Wilder became the nation's first elected black governor on the ballots of Golden Crescent voters. His opponent, Marshall Coleman, would have been elected overwhelmingly had the race occurred only in the west.
Now comes a surprising population update from the University of Virginia's Cooper Center for Public Service. In the first half of the 1990s, the fast growth/slow growth divide was no longer between east and west.
The new line of separation ran through Richmond and Charlottesville, according to the report. The territory to the south, including Hampton Roads, grew more slowly than that to the north.
``Instead of the crescent, we're getting this north-south split,'' according to demographer Julia Martin, who headed the project.
Of course, the new pattern doesn't hold in every case. Chesapeake, a southern locality, grew an estimated 21 percent between 1990 and 1995, according to the center. Fairfax County, Virginia's largest locality, grew by a more modest 9 percent. York County in the southern tier grew a whopping 28 percent; Alexandria by a mere 4.5 percent.
But overall, according to the Cooper Center, population growth in 11 planning districts north of the invisible line averaged 8.6 percent between 1990 and 1995. The Fredericksburg district led with a 22 percent growth rate. In the 10 planning districts south of the line, growth averaged less than 3 percent. The Hampton Roads Planning District, with growth estimated at 5 percent, was the fastest-growing district in the south.
Several other trends with possible long-range policy and political implications emerged from the study:
Despite the north/south disparity, growth generally is more even throughout Virginia than it was in the 1980s. During that decade there were substantial population losses in areas of Southside and Southwest Virginia. The decline has slowed, and none of the state's planning districts registered a population drop during the first half of the 1990s.
Central cities and some rural counties remain the most-imperiled Virginia localities, with slight population losses occurring in Richmond, Portsmouth, Roanoke and a number of Southside counties. The largest drop recorded by a city was in Norfolk. Its estimated 10 percent drop was attributed largely to shifts in military personnel.
The greatest growth is occurring in a series of counties ringing older suburbs. In Northern Virginia's Loudoun County, for instance, population has soared by one-third in the past five years. Nearby Stafford County's is up 30 percent.
Overall, according to the center, 46 percent of Virginia's 429,000 new residents live in Northern Virginia.
The political implications of these changing demographics are substantial. It was once considered a handicap to run for statewide office from Northern Virginia. Today, appealing to voters north of the Rapidan River is a must. Increasingly, the big donors and voter turnouts are there.
Hampton Roads has the good fortune to have interests in common with northern Virginia. Suburban sprawl and its attendant problems and opportunities are challenges to both. The downsizing of the federal government affects both regions.
As the '90s progress, Hampton Roads leaders will need to be attuned to their region's bonds with Northern Virginia. Once an afterthought to the state, Northern Virginia increasingly leads the way. by CNB