THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Saturday, May 25, 1996 TAG: 9605250502
SECTION: LOCAL PAGE: B1 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY LISE OLSEN, STAFF WRITER
LENGTH: 97 lines
Chesapeake continues to be Virginia's fastest-growing city, while Norfolk experienced the state's biggest decline from 1990 to 1995, according to official state population estimates released this month.
Since 1990, Chesapeake's population has grown 21 percent - no other city in the commonwealth matched that - and Chesapeake residents and leaders have been clamoring for a way to brake the boom.
Meanwhile, Norfolk's population dropped between 1 and 3 percent annually, to an estimated 236,200.
It may be only a matter of time before Chesapeake - which has an estimated 183,600 - becomes the region's second-largest city behind Virginia Beach, which had an estimated population of 420,200. Chesapeake grew 3 to 4 percent per year in the 1990s.
Based on 1990s population shifts, Chesapeake could pass Norfolk as soon as 2000. If Norfolk can maintain its current size, Chesapeake will outgrow it in 2002. The Virginian-Pilot estimated those years by computing an average annual increase for each city for 1990 through '95 and projecting population changes based on that average.
Those shifts in city populations affect city resources and services,
but they should make little difference in the regional power structure, said Arthur L. Collins, executive director of the Hampton Roads Planning District Commission.
``We're trying to be a region here,'' Collins said, ``and these `I'm bigger than you are' types of discussions are not helpful.''
The Hampton Roads metro area grew a modest 5 percent in the 1990s as a result of shifts in the population - slower than the Richmond or Northern Virginia metro areas.
Chesapeake Mayor William E. Ward said he's not about to use growth as ``gamesmanship'' in the region - or to challenge Norfolk's position as a regional leader. But the increasing numbers do indicate that Chesapeake ``needs to be reckoned with'' and be given respect, he said.
The actual year in which Chesapeake passes Norfolk depends on many factors, like the pace of planned developments, the economy and the water supply. Chesapeake would grow much faster, for example, if its water problems were solved. It would grow slower if the economy nosedives.
But its pattern of rapid growth is well-established.
Chesapeake grew 3 percent from 1994 to '95 alone. Only a handful of suburban counties shot up faster. Loudoun County, for example, grew 6 percent in 1994-95, and 33 percent from 1990-95.
Chesapeake's own planning department believes there are even more residents: 187,204, boosted by growth in the Rivercrest, Great Bridge and Greenbrier areas, said Karen Shaffer, assistant director.
Five of the top 10 fastest-growing Virginia cities this decade are in Hampton Roads, according to the estimates. Besides Chesapeake, the others were Virginia Beach, Suffolk, Williamsburg and Franklin.
The state's official source for population estimates is the Cooper Center, based at the University of Virginia. It uses information from the U.S. Census Bureau, state tax returns, birth records, school enrollment and housing information to estimate population.
Hampton Roads also holds two of the 10 cities where population dropped the most from 1990-95 in Virginia: Norfolk and Portsmouth.
Portsmouth's population has declined at a slower rate than Norfolk's - 2 percent from 1990-95, compared to 9.5 percent in Norfolk. Portsmouth was holding steady at about 101,900 in 1995, according to the figures.
Norfolk planners attribute much of their city's population loss to the demolition of apartment complexes and to the reassignment of ships, according to Paula Shea, the information management supervisor in Norfolk's planning department. The Cooper Center did not have new information from the Navy, which could affect Norfolk's numbers, said Donna Tolson, who works to develop the estimates.
Though the city does not expect to grow much in the rest of the decade, planners expect that the reopening of the Navy's Ben Moreell complex and the reassignment of some ships to the city may check the decline, Shea said. The school system is projecting more enrollment next year.
There are no apartments or other multi-family dwellings planned to be built in the city. However, in the long term, the redevelopment of East Ocean View, which does include some multi-family units, may lead to modest growth, Shea said.
Norfolk's population decline, partly prompted by redevelopment, has alarmed some citizens who fear the city is actively driving away poorer residents by targeting the places they live.
Councilman Paul R. Riddick said he continues to be concerned about the racial impact of the decline. However, until the 2000 census is taken, it will be hard to estimate how the drop is affecting the city's racial and socio-economic composition.
Riddick said he had hoped the council's investment in public education, a decline in the crime rate and a variety of housing options would help draw more residents.
However, Shea said Norfolk will probably not be able to stay ahead of Chesapeake much longer. ILLUSTRATION: Graphic
HAMPTON ROADS POPULATION
For 1995, and percent change from 1990 to 1995.
[For complete graphic, please see microfilm]
KEYWORDS: POPULATION STATISTICS HAMPTON ROADS
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