THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Tuesday, June 4, 1996 TAG: 9606040002
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A14 EDITION: FINAL
TYPE: Editorial
LENGTH: 55 lines
Say it isn't so.
Baby boomers, born between 1946 and 1964, are growing old - all 75 million of them. The oldest among them are joining the American Association of Retired People this year, at age 50; retirement is a scant 15 years away.
In a third of the states, including Virginia, the elderly population will increase over the next 25 years by 75 percent or more, according to a recent study. Put another way, for every four old Virginians now, there will be seven in 2021.
It is time to start wondering what is to become of all those oldsters, whose number nationwide will more than double by the year 2030 to 70.1 million - a fifth of the population. Imagine the wait for a shuffle-board court in Florida.
On the bright side, the coming oldsters will be the best-educated and healthiest in the nation's history, though eventually they'll become frail and need extensive medical help. More women, having worked, will receive their own pensions, possibly reducing the poverty rate among elderly women, presently at 16 percent. More elderly women will have husbands, as men live longer.
Still, many elderly will have no close relatives to care for them, owing to the baby boomers' high divorce and low birth rates. And the ``young-old,'' a new term for people ages 65 to 74, may well have to care for the ``old-old,'' parents 85 or older.
Already things are changing as America ages. Experts say there's an epidemic of strains and sprains in the industrial heartland as workers age and the economy churns. The average age of auto workers is 47, according to a recent nationwide study by the University of Michigan.
America may lack the will and the money to properly prepare for the unprecedented millions of elderly sure to come, but it had best try. Questions beg to be answered. Will there be enough nursing homes? Or enough Medicaid money to help people pay to live in them, as the number of frail elderly doubles or even triples? Or enough doctors specializing in treating the elderly? With fewer than 7,000 geriatric specialists nationwide, there's a shortage now.
In one regard, Hampton Roads is far luckier than most. The Eastern Virginia Medical School has the new Glennan Center for Geriatrics. As staff writer Debra Gordon recently reported, a high-powered director for the center, Dr. William B. Ershler, is moving here in July.
He plans to have separate clinics focusing on different major health issues affecting the elderly, including falling, incontinence, memory disorders and osteoporosis. A fifth clinic will provide head-to-toe medical evaluations for older patients. And the center will help train physicians in geriatrics.
All of that will be needed, and more. For as surely as tomorrow follows today, America will turn grayer. To prepare, politicians must think beyond the next election; baby boomers must plan for retirement.
Baby boomers have a long record of changing this nation's tastes in music, movies, fashion or whatever. Their number is so great, they've had things their own way. What's next? Wrinkles will become chic. by CNB