THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Friday, June 7, 1996 TAG: 9606070573
SECTION: LOCAL PAGE: B1 EDITION: FINAL
TYPE: Column
SOURCE: Guy Friddell
LENGTH: 57 lines
U.S. Sen. John W. Warner will win renomination Tuesday ``if there is a healthy turnout'' for the Republican primary, political scientist Larry Sabato said Thursday.
If the turnout is light, economist James Miller III ``may well upset Warner,'' the University of Virginia professor predicted.
Among factors affecting the vote total, the turnout hinges most on whether Democrats and independents realize that they are allowed to vote in the GOP primary.
In the GOP convention last week in Salem, Republican leaders fretted over the prospect that Democrats will vote in Tuesday's primary.
Virginians don't register to vote by party, so they may vote if they please in either party's primaries.
Indeed, the Virginia GOP gained ground for half a century by urging Democrats to vote for the better man rather than the party.
In the general election of 1969, Linwood Holton was elected the first Republican governor in a century because thousands of Democrats voted for him rather than for Democrat Bill Battle.
In the presidential race of 1952, Democrats for Eisenhower emerged to help Virginia Democrats feel at ease in leaving the ``House of Our Fathers'' to vote Republican.
In that 1952 race, Democratic switchers helped elect, along with Ike, four Republicans to Congress.
In most of Virginia's major elections, voters cross party lines.
In 1949 during a five-way Democratic primary campaign for governor, Republican leader Henry A. Wise urged Republicans to vote for John S. Battle, the candidate backed by U.S. Sen. Harry Byrd, chief of conservative Democrats.
Wise issued his demand on Republicans to go Democrat although the GOP also held a primary.
The hard-fought 1969 primary shook the Democratic Party to its roots. It was a free-for-all of three worthy candidates: Bill Battle, son of former Gov. Battle and former ambassador to Australia; Henry Howell of Norfolk, a pioneering populist; and former Lt. Gov. Fred Pollard.
Pollard drew only 23 percent of the vote. Battle edged Howell by 4,339 votes. In a run-off primary, Battle beat Howell by 18,600 votes.
In September, a weary but patient Battle nobly endured a grueling inquisition in Richmond by Howell lieutenants. Battle answered agreeably, but they rebuffed him. Sore loser Democrats on the right and the left bolted to help elect Holton.
A polarizer now is Oliver North, who endorsed Miller despite a vow to remain neutral. But North may also stir Democrats grateful to Warner for opposing North in 1994.
If you decide to vote Tuesday, whatever your choice or party, feel free. It's traditional in Virginia. And it's a secret ballot. ILLUSTRATION: John Warner wouldn't mind a friendly Democrat or two.
James Miller would fare better with lower turnout come Tuesday. by CNB