THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Friday, June 21, 1996 TAG: 9606210534
SECTION: BUSINESS PAGE: D1 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY MYLENE MANGALINDAN, STAFF WRITER
LENGTH: 104 lines
After saving Oceana Naval Air Station from the Base Closure and Realignment Commission ax, Virginia Beach has finally determined the value of its prize.
The base is expanding, and its economic impact will be comparable to that of a major industry employing 3,000 moving into Hampton Roads, according to a Hampton Roads Planning District Commission report released this week.
Virginia Beach will get the greatest economic bounce, followed by Chesapeake, the report says.
During the last round of base closings in 1995, Oceana was not only spared, but was designated to become the country's largest Navy fighter base.
Ten squadrons of F/A-18 Hornets will relocate from Florida's Cecil Field to Oceana, along with five squadrons of F-14 Tomcats. Oceana will gain all of the Navy's F-14 fighters and become the East Coast hub for F/A-18 jets, considered the mainstay of the Navy's air combat arm.
About 5,000 military personnel and federal civilian workers will transfer to Oceana between 1996 to 1999. Employment at the base is expected to increase by 5,098. As of October 1995, the total military personnel and federal civilian workers employment at Oceana was 7,700.
The bulk of the growth will come in 1998, when employment is projected to jump by another 3,074. The Navy estimates that a total of 11,322 military personnel and their dependents will eventually move to Hampton Roads because of Oceana.
Virginia Beach stands to gain the most. The city's population may increase by between 7,550 and 9,224, depending on whether most of the Oceana personnel decide to live in neighboring Hampton Roads cities or Virginia Beach.
The planning district commission's report suggests that between 60 percent and 74 percent will choose Virginia Beach.
``Under any set of reasonable circumstances, one would have to conclude that the impact is going to be substantial on the city of Virginia Beach,'' said John W. Whaley, director of economic services at the Hampton Roads Planning District Commission and author of the report.
Chesapeake is expected to gain between 1,916 and 2,895 more residents, according to the study. Suffolk will be the third-largest recipient with 335 to 512 new residents.
Norfolk and Portsmouth are not expected to see much growth due to Oceana's expansion because they have fixed housing stocks and some existing residents are expected to leave, offsetting any net increase.
In all, the region's population should swell up by 12,503 people from 1996 through 1999, according to the report. That is an average annual increase of 3,126, with the largest increase occurring in 1998.
The Planning District Commission report also outlines projected increases in public school enrollment and housing units.
About 2,000 new students are expected in the region's public schools and about 5,000 houses or other units will be needed to accommodate the Oceana transfers.
Virginia Beach will feel the brunt.
Enrollment at Virginia Beach schools is expected to grow between 1,420 and 1,736. Between 3,356 and 4,110 housing units will be needed in the resort city to accommodate new arrivals.
``One of the things the study will do is to help people who are building apartments, houses,'' said Virginia Beach Mayor Meyera Oberndorf. ``With the new entrepreneurial Navy, it gives the private sector the opportunity to get ready, to set up a public-private partnership.''
``The reason we asked for the study was to be able to document the positive impact that the United States Navy has on Virginia Beach,'' Oberndorf said. ``It's not a feel-good thing. It's a hard actuality.''
Other city officials also praised the report for giving Realtors, developers, employers and others a clearer picture.
``It's going to be a tool for the business community as much as anyone else,'' said Bob Matthias, assistant to the city manager. ``I think it's a good planning document. It's certainly a good document for our schools.''
Knowing the number of people on the base will give the city some information about how many cars may be stationed there. That information will help with air quality estimates, Matthias said.
Donald Maxwell, Virginia Beach's director of economic development, is using the study to pitch the area's population base to prospective companies looking to start offices or stores as well as to plan future work-training programs.
``To me it's a tremendous asset to us,'' Maxwell said about the projected population growth. ``It's a big attraction to us when we start talking to entertainment and retail venues because it's a significant increase in our purchasing power.'' ILLUSTRATION: GRAPHIC
BY THE NUMBERS
5,000 The approximate number of military personnel and federal
civilian workers who will transfer to Oceana between 1996 to 1999.
5,098 The expected increase in employment at the base.
7,700 As of October 1995, the total military personnel and
federal civilian workers employment at Oceana.
3,074 The expected jump in employment in 1998, when the bulk of
the growth will come.
11,322 The estimated number of military personnel and dependents
who will eventually move to Hampton Roads because of Oceana
7,550-9,224 The expected increase in Virginia Beach's population.
1,916-2,895 The expected gain in Chesapeake's population.
335-512 The expected increase in Suffolk's population.
12,503 The expected growth impact on the region from 1996 through
1999.
2,000 The number of new students expected in the region's public
schools.
5,000 Houses or other units needed to accommodate the Oceana
transfers.
3,356-4,110 The number of housing units Virginia Beach is
expected to need to accommodate the new arrivals.
KEYWORDS: OCEANA STUDY ECONOMIC IMPACT by CNB