THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Sunday, August 11, 1996 TAG: 9608090028
SECTION: COMMENTARY PAGE: J4 EDITION: FINAL
TYPE: Editorial
LENGTH: 56 lines
The furor in Texas over race-based congressional redistricting holds several omens for Virginia.
First, it's likely that Virginia's 3rd Congressional District will soon follow three majority-minority Lone Star State districts in being reshaped.
The 3rd is the only majority-black district carved in Virginia in this century. It's being scrutinized in light of a U.S. Supreme Court ruling last June that race can't dominate in designing House seats.
Second, retooling will have a ripple effect. If the 3rd District is changed, the electorates of neighboring districts - including the 1st and 2nd in Hampton Roads, the 4th southeast of Richmond, and the 7th around Richmond - may shift as well.
And third, the impact of all that change could be less astounding than activists either fear or hope.
Reining in the boundaries of the 3rd District, which stretches from Portsmouth to Richmond, would cause the African-American percentage of that district's voting age population - currently 61 percent - to dip. Given the Democratic leanings of black voters, that presumably would create a less Democratic 3rd and a corresponding surge in Democratic votes elsewhere.
If the realigned voters are concentrated in the 1st, for instance, that might aid a Democratic challenge to Republican Rep. Herb Bateman. Additional votes in the 2nd, represented by Owen Pickett, might help keep that district in Democratic hands.
Many expect that a shift to a majority-white 3rd District also would make it harder for Rep. Bobby Scott, who is black, to hold on to his seat.
But a redistricting plan imposed this week on Texas by a three-judge panel may not oust minority incumbents there. The judges redesigned 13 of the state's 30 congressional districts and ordered new elections. Texas Democrats had feared such action would cripple them. But it may not.
Two of the state's Democrat-held districts will lose significant Democratic support. But Democratic strength in the three majority-minority districts challenged by the court is virtually intact. So is Republican strength in redesigned districts held by GOP heavyweights: House Majority Leader Dick Armey, Majority Whip Tom DeLay and Ways and Means Commitee Chair Bill Archer.
The question now is whether districts with diminished minority voting strength will continue to elect black and Hispanic representatives. The outcome of Georgia's recent Democratic primary is instructive. Two black Congress members were renominated in districts that had gone from majority-black to majority-white. That suggests an officeholder's incumbency may have more effect on his re-election prospects than his race.
The minority bloc in Congress may decline because of the Supreme Court's ruling. Even if many current black congressmen hold on in majority-white districts, their successors may be white. But for the moment, it appears the Supreme Court decision has not unleashed a sea change in American politics.
A three-member federal district court in Roanoke is set to consider a challenge to the 3rd District next month. Regardless of what it decides, Rep. Bobby Scott may be a member of the Virginia delegation for years to come. by CNB