THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Sunday, August 11, 1996 TAG: 9608090031
SECTION: COMMENTARY PAGE: J5 EDITION: FINAL
TYPE: Opinion
SOURCE: MARGARET EDDS
DATELINE: RICHMOND LENGTH: 81 lines
Virginia's George Allen may not be among the 10 governors who'll have a speaking role at the party's San Diego convention, but our governor has a job to do for Bob Dole nonetheless.
Putting Virginia in the Republican column come November is looking as if it won't be the usual cakewalk.
A Virginia Commonwealth University poll showed Bill Clinton leading Dole by 51 to 38 percentage points in mid-July. Clinton's 13-point spread was up two percentage points over May. Meanwhile, a series of Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research surveys have shown Dole with an ever-shrinking lead in the state, down to two percentage points in July.
Polls this early are notoriously unreliable, but there's anecdotal evidence as well to suggest that some Democrats are thinking the unthinkable. Ask any Democratic politician how the presidential campaign's going thus far, and there'll be an unmistakable smirk.
``Clinton has a better chance of carrying Virginia than anybody since Lyndon Johnson,'' said Norfolk Treasurer Joe Fitzpatrick, who was involved in that 1964 race and most since as an elected or party official.
Since 1952, when Ike put Virginia into the Republican presidential column, the GOP's track record in the state has only a single blemish - the 1964 campaign when Johnson bested former Arizona Sen. Barry Goldwater.
That's a string of successes practically unparalleled in the country, certainly in the South. Every other Southern state crossed the divide for Georgian Jimmy Carter in 1976. Several went with Arkansan Clinton in 1992.
Not so Virginia. When they make up the undecided/leaning/in-the-bag maps for television, the commonwealth is to Republicans what Massachussets has been to Democrats. Signed, sealed and delivered. Before the nominees are picked.
That tradition means the odds still heavily favor a Dole-Virginia marriage come November.
But there are plenty of signs that the wooing this year will need to be a little more ardent. And there's a remote possibility that the vows will never be said.
Beneath the raw numbers, the polls show that Dole's weakness is in Northern Virginia, Hampton Roads and Southwest Virginia. Those are the places that Democrats have traditionally formed winning coalitions, although the southwest has edged more dependably toward the Republicans in recent statewide contests.
With the economies of Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads linked heavily to federal spending, it makes sense that fear of the GOP's budget-cutting ax would run strong.
As for the southwest, personal style may enter the equation. Clinton's earthy youthfulness, coupled with his political move to the right, may make him more appealing than a zestless Dole in this rugged region.
Minus an injection of zip for the GOP, Southwest Virginians may conclude what many other Americans seem to be feeling in the pre-convention days: The former senator looks a little worn for the track.
Policies could also make Dole vulnerable.
An extensive survey of voter attitudes prepared for The Virginian-Pilot by The Harwood Group showed that Virginians care most about two things in this presidential race: the economy and ``taxes and spending.'' Crime and education came in third and fourth.
Far down on the agenda were both the conservative social items favored by the far-right and the more liberal social agenda identified with Democrats.
Asked in an open-ended question to name ``the two most important concerns on your mind . . . as you think about the election,'' only 4.6 percent named abortion. Less than 9 percent named health care or the poor. Fewer than 7 percent cared most about decay of the family. And only 3.4 percent cited a general concern about youth and children.
Twenty-nine percent cited ``economic concerns.'' Another 24 percent went with ``taxes and spending.''
In a nutshell, then, the election in Virginia could come down to whether voters buy the supply-side economic plan put forward by Dole. No clear measure of opinion is available. But if you take Allen's own agenda of tax-and-spending cuts as an indication, you'd have to presume skepticism even in some normally Republican quarters about marked departures from fiscal conservatism.
Allen was rebuffed in his bid for a major tax cut early in 1995 and in his attempt to win GOP control of the legislature later that year.
On the other hand, Fitzpatrick recalls that in 1964 there was, from the start, an air of inevitability about a Johnson victory in the state. No such climate exists this year for Clinton.
But the remarkable change, as Republicans gather in San Diego, is that in Virginia a Republican victory isn't a foregone conclusion. MEMO: Ms. Edds is an editorial writer for The Virginian-Pilot. by CNB