THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Thursday, August 22, 1996 TAG: 9608220374
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A1 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: STAFF AND WIRE REPORTS
DATELINE: WASHINGTON LENGTH: 119 lines
More students will enroll in school this fall than ever before, surpassing the ``Baby Boomer'' peak reached 25 years ago and causing a serious strain on school budgets around the country, the Education Department said in a report Wednesday.
Virginia and North Carolina are among the 33 states facing escalating enrollments.
``When school starts this year, I would hope that most districts have analyzed their own situation and prepared for it,'' said Education Secretary Richard W. Riley, who released the report.
The student enrollment record of 51.7 million students nationwide this fall will continue to be broken every year for the next 10 years, rising by 15 percent to bring the number to 54.6 million by 2006.
California, which has the largest student population in the country at 5.8 million, is expected to lead the surge, adding a million more students over the next 10 years.
Enrollment in grades nine through 12 is expected to rise during the next decade by more than 20 percent in nine states - California, Virginia, North Carolina, New Jersey, Maryland, Nevada, Washington, Alaska and Massachusetts.
To meet the demand, an estimated 190,000 more teachers and more than 6,000 more schools will be needed across the country by the 2006-07 school year.
The trend, dubbed ``The Baby Boom Echo'' by the Education Department, is reminiscent of the enrollment growth caused by the Baby Boomers themselves - the children of the World War II generation. Born between 1946 and 1964, they produced a peak school enrollment of 51.3 million students in 1971.
Between the early 1970s and the mid-1980s, enrollment waned and districts experienced the sometimes painful process of closing schools to save money. But the numbers began to rise again once baby boomers married and had children.
``We are really at the midpoint of a long, slow rising wave,'' Riley said in describing how the ``echo'' looks when charted on a graph.
The wave is also washing over Virginia and North Carolina.
Between this fall and the fall of 2006, Virginia's public and private elementary and secondary school enrollment will likely jump 9.8 percent to 1.2 million, the study showed. Some districts will be hit harder than others.
For South Hampton Roads, state records show that most of the enrollment growth is anticipated in Virginia Beach, Chesapeake and, to a lesser extent, Suffolk, where new housing developments increasingly have attracted families from neighboring cities.
Suffolk's fall 1995 enrollment was about 5 percent higher than at the same time the previous year - one of that district's largest jumps ever.
But Virginia Beach, the state's second-largest district, will continue to experience among the most significant enrollment growth.
A recent federal report showed that the Beach district ranked 20th among the nation's districts with the largest enrollment increases from the fall of 1983 to the fall of 1993. The Beach's increase in that period was nearly 36 percent. ``We're continually in a catch-up mode regarding the housing of students,'' said Tony Arnold, director of facilities, planning and construction.
Next year alone, a new middle school and a new elementary school are scheduled to open, he said.
``In Virginia, it's really a combination of two factors hitting at the same time,'' said Michael Spar, an associate professor at the University of Virginia's Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service, which projects school enrollment trends across Virginia.
``The most important factor, probably, is that all of the kids of the Baby Boom generation basically have been feeding into school systems since the mid-'80s. We're kind of getting the cumulative effect of all of these kids finally getting into and going through school systems.''
The other factor, he said, relates to growth in the number of people who have moved to Virginia in the recent decades.
In North Carolina, classroom numbers are also up.
``It's such a juggling act,'' said Stella Shelton, a spokeswoman for the Wake County Public School System in North Carolina, where enrollment is projected to rise from about 86,400 students this year to more than 101,400 at the turn of the century.
``What it means is that we have classes in the media centers, classes in multipurpose rooms and classes that are larger than the state believes is a good idea,'' she said.
Northeastern North Carolina's Albemarle area also appears to be a part of the national upswing.
First-week enrollments are up in Currituck, Camden and Pasquotank counties and the trend is expected to continue when Dare and Perquimans counties start classes.
The national trend is influenced by a number of factors beyond the ``echo.''
While that second generation is now moving through high school, elementary schools have continued to feel enrollment pressure because the number of births in America, bolstered by immigration, has remained steady during the past four or five years.
``School systems in America's gateway cities, including New York, Los Angeles and Miami, have been the first to feel the direct impact of new immigration patterns,'' Riley said.
There are other factors as well, including:
Black and Latino birth rates have been higher than rates for the population as a whole.
More teen-agers are staying in school until graduation. MEMO: The Los Angeles Times, The Associated Press and staff writers
Vanee Vines and Anne Saita contributed to this report. ILLUSTRATION: Color graphic
Booming enrollment
Nationally:
1996: 51.7 million
2006: 54.6 million
[ North Carolina:
1996: 1.21 million
2006: 1.31 millions]
[appears in the North Carolina Ed. p.A1 only]
Virginia:
1996: 1.12 million
2006: 1.23 million
To meet the demand:
An estimated 190,000 more teachers and more than 6,000 more
schools will be needed across the country by the 2006-07 school
year.
KEYWORDS: HIGH SCHOOLS OVERCROWDING ENROLLMENT BOOM by CNB