THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Friday, August 30, 1996 TAG: 9608300506
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A5 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY STEVE STONE, STAFF WRITER
LENGTH: 73 lines
Hurricane Edouard slowed, gained strength and edged onto a course Thursday that could bring it within 200 miles of the Outer Banks by Sunday, but still offshore.
For now.
There are increasing concerns that the hurricane could turn toward the coast.
``With the approaching holiday weekend, residents along the U.S. East Coast from Georgia northward should monitor the progress of this dangerous hurricane,'' said Lixion Avila, a meteorologist with the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
``The trend is for more and more of a threat to the coast up there,'' said John Hope, senior meteorologist at The Weather Channel in Atlanta. ``It's probably not going to be picked up by this low pressure trough we had hoped would take it to the northeast. It's going to be left there and, very likely, begin to nudge back to the west.''
Even if it passes by uneventfully, Edouard has trouble in its wake. Another hurricane, a tropical storm and yet another strong tropical wave are all steering along courses almost identical to the big hurricane's.
``It's really gotten busy out there,'' Hope said.
Edouard poses a troublesome situation for forecasters at the National Hurricane Center. They are always dealing with two competing interests: giving people enough warning time to take necessary action, without needlessly scaring people away from tourist-dependent coastal resorts. And this being a long - potentially profitable - holiday weekend only ups the ante.
``They don't want to warn people unnecessarily,'' Hope said. ``It costs money, and it hurts their credibility.''
Still, by Saturday or Sunday, if Edouard moves as forecast, the Hurricane Center may be issuing alerts for some part of the East Coast.
``If there is any minor change in the track, there could be problems,'' said Weather Channel meteorologist Rick Griffin.
The trouble is that a ridge of low pressure that sat off the coast all of last hurricane season, and for part of this season, is fading. ``All of a sudden, that trough seems to be disappearing,'' Hope said.
The trough had served as an atmospheric barrier, a wall that blocked several hurricanes and steered them northeast. But by Saturday, it will have vanished.
In its place, Edouard will face the clockwise circulation of a high-pressure system building over New England. That could steer the hurricane west - toward land.
It's possible Edouard might stall after the trough vanishes and before the high pressure is built, but Hope doesn't expect a repeat of last year, when Hurricane Felix hovered offshore for more than three days.
``This one could do that, but it's more apt to nudge on westward,'' Hope said. ``Most of the global forecast models suggest there will be some movement (of the hurricane) back toward the coast.''
Edouard is already stirring up some high sea swells that should be affecting the mid-Atlantic coast today. ``The swimming will be a bit rough,'' Hope said. ``You need to know what you are doing if you go in the water.''
At 5 p.m. Thursday, the hurricane was about 785 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, moving northwest near 13 mph. Its maximum sustained winds were back up to 140 mph, with gusts to near 170 mph.
Hurricane-force winds of 74 mph or greater extended 105 miles from the center, and tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph of greater extended 200 miles out.
Meanwhile, it appeared that the Leeward Islands, the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico had dodged another storm. Just days after Edouard steered safely to the north of them, Hurricane Fran was doing the same.
At 5 p.m., Fran was about 255 miles east-northeast of Antigua in the Leeward Islands, moving west-northwest near 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 75 mph in a small area mainly north of the center.
At the same time, Tropical Storm Gustav was about 870 miles west-southwest of the Cape Verde Islands in the Eastern Atlantic. It was moving northwest near 13 mph, with maximum sustained winds near 45 mph.
And, as if that isn't enough, ``We have a another very healthy-looking tropical wave coming off Africa,'' Hope said. by CNB