THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Friday, September 6, 1996 TAG: 9609060500
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A1 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY STEVE STONE, STAFF WRITER
LENGTH: 111 lines
Hurricane Fran spared Virginia a direct coastal assault Thursday, but it may exact a toll as it moves north into the state from North Carolina.
The problem will be rain.
``Certainly enough to raise the possibility of some very severe flooding,'' said John Hope, senior meteorologist at The Weather Channel in Atlanta. ``Especially considering that we're talking about an area that is already saturated.''
The National Hurricane Center expected Fran to move almost due north, west of the Outer Banks, and cross the border into central Virginia late this morning.
The net effect could be like that of Bertha, which took a similar course.
``It's going to be a little bit further inland from the Outer Banks than Bertha was, but it's also bigger than Bertha,'' said Sim Aberson, a Hurricane Center meteorologist. ``There is a chance the Outer Banks could be getting hurricane force winds (overnight), but it will be weakening by then.''
Here is what the National Weather Service expects in Hampton Road and the Outer Banks today:
Winds - Gusts to near hurricane force (74 mph); sustained winds of 35 to 50 mph likely along the coast from Virginia Beach through Hatteras; seas building to 12 to 14 feet overnight; strong rip currents and some beach erosion.
Tides - Overnight, a surge of about 3 to 5 feet over the western end of Albemarle Sound with about 2 to 3 feet in the northern and western sections of Currituck Sound and the northern Outer Banks. Tides in the Hampton Roads area and along the Eastern Shore will average 1 to 3 feet above normal.
High tides today are Currituck Beach at 3:33 p.m.; at Virginia Beach at 3:53 p.m.; at Cape Charles at 5:08 p.m.; and at Sewells Point in Norfolk at 5:19 p.m.
Rainfall - Will depend on the exact track of the storm, but 2 to 6 inches and higher amounts in areas hit by heavier squalls are possible. A flash flood watch is in effect for northeastern North Carolina and may be needed for Virginia.
Because the ground is already soggy, trees could be blown over and gusts may down limbs, causing power outages and blocked roads.
More serious damage is not expected locally. But central Virginia seems assured of problems.
``We could be set up for what could be some very serious flooding,'' said Declann Cannon, another Weather Service meteorologist.
Two shelters opened Thursday in Roanoke and Danville, and government workers went door-to-door in flood-prone areas to urge people to go to the shelters or stay with friends on higher ground.
In Richmond, the state's emergency operations center was up and running in the basement of the State Police Academy.
The problem in central Virginia would come if Fran meets the Appalachians and is forced upward. It will be squeezed like a sponge.
``As it rises up over the steeper terrain . . . 5 to 10 inches of rain is possible,'' Cannon said. ``And we also have to keep in mind that when these tropical systems slow down - and this one might - that only prolongs the period of heavy rainfall.''
It's happened before in various - and sometimes deadly - forms in Virginia.
In 1969, Hurricane Camille moved into Virginia after making landfall in Mississippi. It spawned rampant flooding, killing 153.
Camille's killing element was its speed - or lack of it. The storm moved slowly, dumping huge amounts of rain in a small area. Flooding came as people slept.
In Nelson County, 125 people were killed - 56 when Davis Creek roared down a hollow at night.
In 1985, as much as 18 inches of rain fell in Nelson County over five days as a storm that had initially been of little concern hit the mountains. It came on the heels of Hurricane Juan, which had soaked the area just days earlier.
It spawned what meteorologist called a ``500 years'' flood, claiming 22 lives in the Roanoke Valley.
In 1972, Hurricane Agnes produced heavy rain in the Blue Ridge Mountains north of Roanoke. Agnes was much weaker than Fran, but it still caused major flooding along the James River in Richmond.
In 1989, Hugo entered far southwestern Virginia and shot straight up the mountains toward the New River and Roanoke valleys.
``It is certainly a real problem,'' Pat Michaels, Virginia's state climatologist based at the University of Virginia in Charlotesville, said of Fran. ``We are currently in the throes of a Fran panic anagolous to the Hugo panic in 1989, except, this time, it may actually happen.''
Hugo's path and that of Fran are very similar. But Hugo never delivered the heavy rains forecasters had predicted. Instead, it slowed significantly after coming ashore and blew apart over interior North Carolina.
There are critical differences between Fran and Hugo, however.
``Fran is a very large storm and its hurricane-force winds have already spread far away from the center,'' Michaels said.
``And you can sure see in the radar imagery a lot of the heavy rain beginning to spread into Southside Virginia where it's already very wet.''
In the past week, 2 to 3 inches of rain have fallen in central Virginia, which already was under a flood watch before Fran approached. Some spots have received up to 6 inches. ILLUSTRATION: Map
Color photos
UNIVERSITY OF HAWAII
Fran sweeps ashore in this enhanced infrared satellite image.
ASSOCIATED PRESS
Scott DeMichele of the ShowBoat Motel in Atlantic Beach, N.C.,
gathers pieces of the motel's dock that had broken up Thursday as
Hurricane Fran approached shore.
Joe Rufra checks a motorist's identification in Atlantic Beach,
N.C., Thursday as the winds ahead of the hurricane buffet the area.
KEYWORDS: HURRICANE FRAN HURRICANES by CNB