THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Thursday, September 12, 1996 TAG: 9609120331
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A9 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY STEVE STONE, STAFF WRITER
LENGTH: 52 lines
Another weekend, another hurricane?
Probably not.
It appeared on Wednesday that intensifying Hurricane Hortense was making a slow arc that should keep it well east of the Outer Banks and Virginia Beach. The National Hurricane Center expects it to swing safely to the north and, finally, the northeast by Friday.
The storm ravaged Puerto Rico on Tuesday and is blamed for at least eight deaths there. But by the time it passes the U.S. East Coast, Hortense should do little more than churn up waves.
``The surfers will like it,'' said John Hope, senior meteorologist at The Weather Channel in Atlanta. ``It looks like there will be some good surf.''
At 8 p.m., Hortense was about 65 miles northeast of the Caicos Islands, moving northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds were near 110 mph with gusts to 130 mph. Further strengthening is possible today.
A couple of things are working in tandem to help keep the hurricane away from the coastline: The same low pressure trough that has kept eastern Virginia and North Carolina under gray, wet skies is expected to help turn it; then upper-level winds are expected to hook it and sling it northeast.
By the time it reaches New England, Hope said, the hurricane is likely to be traveling at 30 mph.
The only threat Hortense poses at this point is to New England.
Ed Rappaport, a meteorologist with the Hurricane Center in Miami, said the storm is expected to strengthen a little more until it reaches waters already stirred up by the passage of hurricanes Edouard and Fran.
Those waters will be colder because of upwelling - the process of colder waters being brought to the surface by the agitation of a passing storm. Since hurricanes feed on warmer waters, the chilly reception in the wake of its cousins should weaken Hortense.
Even with that, Hortense is expected to maintain hurricane strength at least through Friday, when it's expected to be about 600 miles southeast of Cape Hatteras. By Saturday, it should have passed well east of Hampton Roads.
The forecast track is similar to the route taken by several hurricanes last year that passed between Bermuda and the East Coast.
Hortense's devastating passage over Puerto Rico came at the statistical peak of hurricane season. From here on, the average number of storms decreases with time.
There is a strong tropical wave midway between Africa and the Leeward Islands. Upper-level winds are inhibiting its development. Those winds may lessen in the next day or two, however, and the system could strengthen.
Other than that, ``the good news is that there is nothing new out there right now,'' Hope said. ``For a while, we were seeing new tropical waves coming off Africa every day. But there's nothing out there now.''
KEYWORDS: HURRICANE HORTENSE by CNB