THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Friday, September 13, 1996 TAG: 9609130551
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A1 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY STEVE STONE, STAFF WRITER
LENGTH: 69 lines
Word that mighty Hortense - already bigger than Hurricane Fran - will likely stay safely at sea brought a sigh of relief Thursday along the East Coast.
``We're very fortunate indeed that a hurricane of this magnitude is going to stay away from the East Coast and miss Bermuda, too,'' said meteorologist Mike Bono of The Weather Channel in Atlanta.
The hurricane's top sustained winds hit 140 mph Thursday evening with gusts to 170 mph. The storm is now a Category 4 storm on the five-tier Saffir-Simpson scale. That is considered a very dangerous hurricane capable of causing extensive damage. Data from a research aircraft flying in the storm's eye and from satellite images indicated Hortense might finally have peaked, the National Hurricane Center said.
The storm's barometric pressure continued to drop, however, down to 935 millibars at 11 p.m., or 27.61 inches. And after a bruising run-in with Puerto Rico, where it claimed at least 14 lives, and the Dominican Republic, the storm regained a classic symmetrical shape with a large, well-defined eye.
``It's becoming more powerful by the hour,'' said John Hope, The Weather Channel's senior meteorologist. ``We're very encouraged that this hurricane is going to keep well east of the Virginia Capes and the North Carolina Capes.''
The 15-mile-wide eye is well-defined, displaying what meteorologist call a ``stadium effect.'' That is, it's perfectly round and is narrowest at its base and widest at its top. Looking down on it from a satellite, it looks like a stadium bowl.
``Given the well-defined eye and such a drop in pressure, some additional strengthening is possible'' overnight, said Lixion Avila, a Hurricane Center meteorologist.
At 11 p.m., Hortense was about 645 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, about 770 miles from Norfolk, moving north near 15 mph and apparently speeding up.
The Hurricane Center forecast calls for Hortense to continue on a northerly track through today and then turn to the north-northeast with an increase in forward speed.
The guiding forces are a low pressure trough running from the southwest to the northeast along the East Coast and upper level winds.
Those winds are riding the jet stream, which is dipping deep into the Southeast from the Midwest before turning and running northeastward through New England.
Hortense is expected to get caught up within the southwesterly flow ahead of the trough and begin to lose its tropical characteristics by Saturday.
The only ``if'' in the forecast Thursday was whether a developing low pressure system over the Great Lakes might have some effect on the storm. In theory, it's circulation might pull at Hortense as the hurricane nears New England and bring it closer to shore. Forecasters felt confident that that will not happen, however.
According to the Hurricane Center outlook, by 11 a.m. Saturday, the storm should be centered due east of Virginia Beach, halfway between the coast and Bermuda.
``The big deal with Hortense will be the swells,'' Bono said. ``This thing is going to pump out some major swells'' that will be hitting the coast from Florida to New England as it passes.
Meanwhile, a tropical wave in the central Atlantic has yet to break free of some strong winds in the upper atmosphere that have been slicing it to pieces.
``It doesn't seem likely it will develop at all in the near future,'' Hope said. ILLUSTRATION: Photo
ASSOCIATED PRESS
Residents of the Ocean Park neighborhood in San Juan, Puerto Rico,
make their way Wednesday through streets flooded by Hurricane
Hortense. The storm killed at least 14 people on the island. by CNB