THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Monday, October 7, 1996 TAG: 9610070043
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A3 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY STEVE STONE, STAFF WRITER
LENGTH: 42 lines
If forecasts hold - and they often don't - the mid-Atlantic region faces its fourth run-in with a tropical cyclone, possibly as soon as Wednesday.
Tropical Depression 10, expected to intensify overnight into Tropical Storm Josephine, was more than 1,200 miles southwest of Norfolk, in the Gulf of Mexico, on Sunday.
But the National Hurricane Center's 5 p.m. forecast brings the storm ashore somewhere between Tampa and Pensacola early Tuesday, and then speeds it northeast, past Charleston, S.C., Tuesday night and up the coastline over eastern North Carolina and at the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay by 5 p.m. Wednesday.
But forecasts for tropical systems have a wide margin of error, especially for a three-day outlook.
And even if it does follow the forecast, top winds are not expected to exceed 60 mph - well below hurricane strength.
More certain Sunday was that Florida - which was criss-crossed by damaging hurricanes several times last year - faces some rough weather very soon.
At 5 p.m., the center of the depression was about 350 miles south-southwest of New Orleans, moving east near 10 mph. An east-northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected today, the hurricane center said.
Maximum sustained winds were near 35 mph and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm overnight.
``A tropical storm watch will likely be required for a portion of the northeast Gulf coast by early Monday,'' said Richard Pasch, a meteorologist at the hurricane center.
The storm is expected to be drawn along the southeast side of a strong trough that is expected to dominate the eastern U.S.
That same trough may also keep the storm from strengthening and may absorb it. ILLUSTRATION: TRACKER'S GUIDE
STEVE STONE
The Virginian-Pilot
[For a copy of the chart, see microfilm for this date.] by CNB