THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Saturday, October 19, 1996 TAG: 9610190277
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A1 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY WARREN FISKE, STAFF WRITER
LENGTH: 116 lines
Republican Bob Dole comes to Norfolk this afternoon hoping to galvanize a state that may be on the verge of supporting a Democratic presidential candidate for the first time in 32 years.
With polls showing Clinton having as much as a 9-percentage point lead in Virginia, Dole is slated to speak about an hour into a 1:30 rally downtown, at Nauticus.
The official word from the Dole campaign is that Norfolk is a logical stop near the end of the Republican's three-day, cross-country trek from San Diego - site of Wednesday's presidential debate - to Washington, where Dole plans to sleep tonight in his own bed. On Sunday, Dole heads to New Hampshire.
But many political analysts say Dole's appearance in a traditional Republican stronghold such as Virginia only 17 days before the Nov. 5 election underscores the campaign's inability to cement even its base conservative vote.
``The fact that Dole is spending any time in Virginia at this stage indicates that this state is not locked up for him, and that's bad news for Dole,'' said Mark Rozell, a political scientist at American University. ``It suggests that if he's in bad shape here, he's in bad shape everywhere.''
Dole, making his fifth campaign stop in Virginia this year, will be accompanied by two popular Republicans - Gov. George F. Allen and U.S. Sen. John W. Warner. Also with Dole will be his daughter, Robin, who spent several days stumping the state this month.
Speaking in the hometown of the world's largest naval base, Dole is expected to chastise Clinton for too deeply cutting defense programs. Campaign officials said Dole also plans to defend his proposals to cut taxes and continue his recent strategy of questioning Clinton's character.
State Republican officials say Dole's appearance will kick off a last-minute flurry of activity designed to put Virginia's 13 electoral votes into the hands of the GOP once again. They said Dole will begin a ``modest'' television advertising campaign in Virginia this weekend that should last through Election Day.
But with the nation at peace, with the stock markets high, and inflation, interest rates and unemployment low, state GOP leaders admit they face no easy task.
``We've known all along that Virginia was going to be a tough race this year,'' said Chris LaCivita, executive director of the state GOP and manager of Dole's Virginia campaign. ``We have never worked under the premise that Bob Dole was going to blow Bill Clinton away in Virginia.''
Clinton has made no commitments to campaign in Virginia despite repeated pleas from Mark R. Warner, the Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate.
The Clinton campaign is reportedly debating whether to continue flexing its muscles in large states such as California and Ohio that appear safe or to begin campaigning in traditional GOP bastions such as Virginia, Indiana, Florida and Texas.
``Virginia would be icing on the cake for Clinton, but he really doesn't need it,'' said Brad Coker, president of Mason-Dixon Political/Media Research, a Maryland polling firm. ``We already have Clinton with statistically significant leads in enough other states to suggest he'll be re-elected.''
With polls showing Clinton holding a double-digit lead nationwide, political scientists say it is not surprising that Virginia should be up for grabs this year. ``Virginia votes about 6 or 7 percentage points more Republican than the rest of the country,'' said Larry Sabato, a University of Virginia political scientist. ``So if Dole is trailing by 15 percentage points in the rest of the country, there's a good chance he would lose in Virginia.''
While Virginia remains Republican-leaning, political scientists add, it's a much less conservative place than it was in 1964, when the state last backed a Democrat, Lyndon B. Johnson, in his landslide national victory over Republican Barry Goldwater.
Virginia's population has grown by 2.5 million since then. Almost half of the growth has occurred in Northern Virginia, where an affluent white-collar and professional class, with little or no tie to the state's Southern heritage, tends to back Democrats.
The trend was evident in 1992. Republican George Bush carried Virginia by only 4 percentage points over Clinton.
The good news for Republicans is that Bush was able to galvanize support after polls during the closing weeks of the campaign showed him running even with Clinton.
``I can't believe that Clinton will win Virginia; I don't believe it,'' said Del. J. Randy Forbes of Chesapeake, chairman of the state GOP. ``It's not Virginia's nature to do that.''
The bad news is that there is deep skepticism over Dole's signature pledge to enact a 15 percent across-the-board tax cut. A recent poll conducted by the Richmond Times-Dispatch found two out of three Virginians agreeing with Clinton's insistence that the federal deficit should be reduced before such a cut is given.
The poll, published Sunday, also shows Virginians regard Clinton as more friendly to education and better able to create jobs and limit children's access to tobacco, alcohol and drugs than Dole.
Conversations with voters bring up another concern about Dole - his age. At 73, he would be the oldest newly elected president. Clinton is 50.
``The main thing is his age,'' said Nancy Ferguson of Roanoke while she was arranging her cards at a Bingo hall this week. ``Not his politics or what he goes for. It's his age. Clinton is a more aggressive, younger, vibrant man. He jogs all the time.''
At the next table, Louise Johnson agreed, recalling the time last month when Dole accidentally fell off a speaker's platform while bending over to shake hands.
``Dole might be a little old for the job,'' said Johnson, undecided about whom she'll support. ``You've got to be young to fly around to all these countries.''
Not all Virginians see it that way. Chris S. Benavides, 29, will vote for Dole. The Chesapeake man was changing his Honda's air filter in a parking lot on Battlefield Boulevard late Friday afternoon.
``I think he's an honest man. He's had a good reputation for being able to compromise in the Senate. When I hear Senate Democrats praise him for that, I know he'll do that in the White House and I don't like Bill Clinton.''
And does age matter?
``Remember, Bill Clinton's 50. I'm 29. There's a generation gap between him and me, too,'' said Benavides. ``Just because he's appeared on MTV doesn't mean that he understands 20-year-olds better than Bob Dole.'' MEMO: Elizabeth Thiel and Christina Nuckols contributed to this report. ILLUSTRATION: Color photo
Bob Dole
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