THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Tuesday, October 22, 1996 TAG: 9610220288
SECTION: LOCAL PAGE: B7 EDITION: FINAL
SOURCE: BY PHILIP WALZER, STAFF WRITER
DATELINE: RICHMOND LENGTH: 102 lines
Legislators Monday heard an unusual public spat between two state agencies over the accuracy of Virginia college enrollment forecasts.
The State Department of Planning and Budget said the projections from the State Council of Higher Education in Virginia were ``poorly documented'' and overestimated enrollment. The projections help determine schools' share of state money.
``If you don't use a recipe, the cake differs from time to time,'' department economist A. Fletcher Mangum said. ``Sometimes it tastes good, and sometimes it doesn't.''
The state council, in turn, said its estimates, though imperfect, were among the best in the nation. And its director, in a passionate conclusion, virtually dismissed the issue as a red herring that was wasting everyone's time in Richmond.
``We've got to stop scouring 20-year-old files to find data for two-year enrollment projections,'' said Gordon K. Davies, the director of the higher-education agency. ``It's time to put this behind us and get to work. .
In a political victory for Davies and a defeat for the Allen administration, the legislators appeared to agree. Some scolded the budget department for not adequately consulting the state council before publicizing its critique in August. And none voiced any objections with the council's enrollment data.
``The legislature is very satisfied with the information received from SCHEV,'' said Del. Alan A. Diamonstein, D-Newport News, referring to the acronym for the education agency.
Sen. John H. Chichester, R-Fredericksburg, co-chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, echoed Davies: ``Let's focus on that which lies ahead. We need not mire ourselves in the past.''
Officials of both the budget and education agencies testified about the projections Monday before a joint hearing of the education subcommittees of the Senate Finance and House Appropriations committees.
In recent months, the enrollment projections have emerged as one of the state's leading higher-education issues - with sharp political overtones.
In July, members of the state council - who are appointed by Gov. George F. Allen - commissioned an investigation of the enrollment projections.
That report, critical of the council, was released at the council's August meeting.
The members of the council then approved changes in the forecasting process, providing greater involvement by the budget department.
The members said they were just trying to ensure that the projections, which are sent to the governor and legislature before they design budgets, were as accurate as possible. But skeptics worry that it may be part of an attempt by the Allen administration to make Davies look bad.
Davies has been director of the agency for 19 years and has regularly collided with governors, especially in pursuit of more funding for colleges. He is hired not by the governor, but by the members of the council themselves.
In Monday's hearing, the legislators - some of whom are strongly supportive of Davies - spent more time attacking the budget department for its handling of the matter than questioning the numbers themselves.
``There seems to be a perception out there, among the citizens, that something sinister may be going on,'' said Sen. Stanley C. Walker, D-Norfolk, the other co-chairman of the Senate Finance panel. `` . . . It seems to me the (budget) department should have gone over that report with SCHEV, so they could have had the opportunity to respond before they made it public.''
Mangum, the economist, said he was given only a month to complete the report so there was no time to review the final draft with council officials.
During his 30-minute presentation, Mangum said the state council, using individual college projections, overestimated enrollment in four-year schools by the equivalent of 9,800 full-time students in 1995. That, he said, was the combined enrollments of the College of William and Mary, Virginia Military Institute and Clinch Valley College.
The problem, he said, was that the council does not scrutinize the colleges' numbers closely enough or do a good job predicting the influx of transfer students.
But Donald J. Finley, associate director of the state council, said the errors in 1994 and 1995 were ``an anomaly in council history, which we think is pretty good in predicting enrollment. . . . I would suggest to you we're doing as good as anybody in the country.''
He said the budget department did not study the projections that were actually used by the General Assembly to help parcel out college budgets in 1994-96. Nor did it consider ``mid-biennium projections,'' done during the middle of the state's two-year budget cycle to help correct previous inaccuracies.
Davies, noting that Virginia ranks no better than 40th in the country in state aid per college student, said: ``It would simply be ridiculous to say we are overfunded or to suggest we are overbuilt because of enrollment projections.''
After the meeting, Robert W. Lauterberg, the director of the budget department, responded to the legislators' directive to the two agencies to operate with more cooperation and less conflict.
``Hopefully,'' he said, ``we can work together in a more low-key way.'' ILLUSTRATION: Photo
Gordon Davies: ``It would simply be ridiculous to say we are
overfunded . . . because of enrollment projections.''
Photo
Appointees of Gov. Allen began an investigation of college
enrollment projections in July.
KEYWORDS: COLLEGES UNIVERSITIES ENROLLMENT by CNB