THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Sunday, October 27, 1996 TAG: 9610270308
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A1 EDITION: FINAL
SERIES: DECISION '96
CHOOSING A PRESIDENT
What voters need to know that the sound bites don't reveal
Last in an eight-part series on issues underlying the words in the
presidential campaign.
SOURCE: BY ROBERT A. RANKIN, KNIGHT-RIDDER NEWS SERVICE
DATELINE: WASHINGTON LENGTH: 175 lines
If Bill Clinton wins re-election, what will his second and final term as president be like once he is free from campaigning for office?
Three scenarios seem most plausible:
He could return to his big-government liberal roots, as Bob Dole warns.
He could stick to his modest proposals and compromises with conservatives, a course that has revived him from near-extinction these past two years, and one that Clinton and his aides insist he will maintain.
And then there is an intriguing third possibility: Clinton could carve himself a place in history by daring to be the Democrat who imposes fiscal discipline on the immense social-welfare programs he inherited from Franklin Roosevelt and Lyndon Johnson - Social Security and Medicare.
``That may be the irony. His second term may be more conservative than the first, in that the big things he may do may be to trim back the entitlements. Because those are the compelling problems'' of his time, said historian Robert Dallek, author of many books on presidents, the latest being ``Hail to the Chief.''
Such ironies often color presidencies.
``Red-baiter'' Richard Nixon opened the door to Communist China. Southerner Lyndon Johnson forged a revolution in civil-rights laws. Small-government apostle Thomas Jefferson exceeded his constitutional authority in order to wrap up the Louisiana Purchase and double the nation's size at a stroke.
At the same time, historians caution, second terms rarely enhance the reputations of mediocre presidents - or even great ones.
Woodrow Wilson's and FDR's second terms both sagged badly after big successes during their first four years. Second-term scandals sank Richard Nixon in Watergate and crippled Ronald Reagan with Iran-Contra. Of the 14 men elected president twice, only Theodore Roosevelt achieved more his second time around than his first.
Yet Clinton is only 50, and his ambition to leave his mark on history is palpable. Unlike FDR or LBJ, however, he won't be able to spend his way into history with grand new programs. His hands are tied by his commitment to balance the budget.
During the presidential campaign, Clinton has laid out a second-term agenda of often-modest ambitions.
``I think he's a great candidate, but there is nothing occurring in this campaign that is going to set him up - other than being re-elected - for a second term. No broad theme,'' observed Ed Rollins, the Republican consultant who guided Reagan to a similarly themeless re-election in 1984.
Clinton vows to balance the budget while protecting Medicare, Social Security, education and the environment from excessive spending cuts; to seek targeted tax cuts for child-rearing and education; to expand the Family and Medical Leave Act; and to accelerate the cleanup of America's toxic-waste dumps.
Clinton also wants to finish the job of putting 100,000 more police on the streets; to move 1 million more people from welfare to work by giving employers tax breaks; and to make education his top priority so that every 8-year-old can read, every 12-year-old can log onto the Internet, and every 18-year-old can go to college.
On foreign affairs, Clinton similarly hopes to build on initiatives he already has begun - expanding NATO while strengthening ties to Russia; lowering trade barriers in Asia and Latin America; building a relationship of trust with China; fostering trust in the peace talks of the Middle East and Northern Ireland; and containing Iraq, Iran and North Korea.
``I don't think he'll be that different,'' said George Stephanopoulos, one of Clinton's closest aides. ``Listen, the president is a man of energy, he's going to be engaged, he's going to be looking to create a lasting legacy, and he'll be as motivated the day after the election, if he wins, as he is right now.''
A second term could be marred, however, by the outcome of Independent Counsel Kenneth Starr's investigation into the Whitewater affair.
Moreover, the ultimate character of Clinton's second term will depend heavily on whether Democrats regain control of Congress. If they do, old-line liberals such as Reps. John Dingell of Michigan and Charles Rangel of New York will control key committees and could push Clinton toward big-government programs.
Yet even that influence would be greatly constrained. Top Democrats say they learned their lesson in 1994, when voters registered their disgust with Clinton-led liberalism by giving Republicans control of Capitol Hill for the first time in 40 years. GOP excesses gave Clinton an opening to recover, which he seized by restyling himself as a me-too moderate.
Now even liberal House Democrats echo Clinton, vowing to push for no more than small-scale social reforms while driving toward a balanced budget. And no matter which party gains power on Capitol Hill, its margin is expected to be quite small, necessitating bipartisan compromises.
In such a political atmosphere, it's possible that Clinton could take on Social Security and Medicare. He already has dismantled welfare as we know it by signing a Republican-drafted law that liberals find reprehensible.
To be sure, if Clinton does tackle serious reform of these programs, it would be a surprise. Long-range costs are rising out of control for both Medicare and Social Security, but Clinton has barely acknowledged the gravity of the problem, and certainly not committed himself to fixing it.
That's probably because fixing it would be risky politically: Experts say effective reform would require either raising taxes, curbing future benefits, or exposing beneficiaries to greater financial risks.
``One of the lessons of the last four years is that all of these big issues - whether it was health care for us or the budget for the Republicans - can only be achieved if they are done in a bipartisan manner,'' Stephanopoulos said. ``So we will be looking for some sort of bipartisan process in which to deal with such problems'' in a second term.
Some analysts think Clinton is making the job harder by not seeking a mandate to do it from the voters. Instead, he is stressing his dedication to protect Medicare from Republicans.
``That kind of rhetoric could make it impossible to reform the entitlement programs that are most in need of reform in the near-term, which are the health-care programs,'' said Carol Cox Wait, president of the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, a nonpartisan watchdog group. ``Health-care spending is going to eat this country alive unless we do something.''
Nevertheless, two factors still may push Clinton into serious reform of Medicare and Social Security during his second term: The problem is growing unavoidable, and he has yet to achieve much that is memorable.
``After all, if his presidency were to come to an end this year, historians would see him as no more than an average president. What are his big achievements?'' said historian Dallek. ``Debt reduction, the economy has done fairly well, but there are no big themes, no organizing principles like the New Deal, the Fair Deal, or the Reagan years. It's more like the themeless presidencies of the late 19th century.
``I think he is going to want to be ambitious. Presidents do this in second terms. He'll be thinking about history: `What will history say about me?' They are deeply concerned about that. . . . So I think he will be ambitious to get some big things done.''
But no matter what grand plans Clinton may harbor for his second term, in the end even presidents can do little more than respond to the challenges that unscripted life thrusts upon them. As Ralph Waldo Emerson wrote in the last century, ``events are in the saddle and ride mankind.'' ILLUSTRATION: PHOTO ILLUSTRATION/The Virginian-Pilot
Graphic
CLINTON'S LIST
Here are proposals that President Clinton says he would pursue in
a second term:
TAXES: Enact targeted tax cuts, such as on capital gains tax for
the sale of a home, college-tuition credit, and a $500 per-child-tax
credit.
EDUCATION: Expand the Head Start program, provide federal money
for school renovation and connect classrooms to the Internet.
Clinton does not favor school vouchers.
ILLITERACY: Start a program to get children reading by the end of
third grade.
TOXIC CLEANUP: Target two-thirds of all Superfund sites for
cleanup by 2000.
JOB TRAINING: Combine many federal job-training programs into
grants for workers to use for tuition or training.
MEDICARE: Cut the growth in Medicare spending from the current 9
percent to 7.3 percent a year.
MISSILE DEFENSE SYSTEM: Continue development of a missile defense
system, but put off any decision on deployment until 2000.
GUN CONTROL: Prohibit gun purchases by perpetrators of domestic
violence.
SUPREME COURT: Appoint Supreme Court nominees who support
abortion rights and who would protect citizens from undue intrusion
by the government.
IMMIGRATION: Implement a modest decrease in legal immigration.
While opposed to social services for illegal immigrants, he is not
against allowing their children to attend school.
ABORTION: Continue abortion rights. But Clinton says he would
sign a partial-birth abortion ban if it included an exemption for
the health of the mother.
AFFIRMATIVE ACTION: Change affirmative-action programs to
increase minority business opportunities without federal set-asides.
ILLEGAL DRUGS: Stiffen mandatory penalties for those who sell
drugs to children. Also wants to improve drug-trafficking
information-sharing with other countries and greater role for the
military in combatting the flow of drugs.
FAMILY MEDICAL LEAVE: Expand the family leave to include doctor
and dental visits.
KEYWORDS: PRESIDENTIAL RACE 1996 CANDIDATES
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