THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1996, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Tuesday, October 29, 1996 TAG: 9610290002
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A18 EDITION: FINAL
TYPE: OPINION
SOURCE: By JOHN GOOLRICK
LENGTH: 66 lines
A stronger than expected performance by President Clinton in Virginia - perhaps, even a victory - may be a mixed blessing for Democrats heading into next year's statewide elections.
Because federal election years and state election years are quite deliberately separated in Virginia, the historic pattern has been that the party that does well in one does not necessarily gather momentum going into the other. In 1980, just to cite one example, Ronald Reagan won a landslide victory in Virginia over incumbent Democratic President Jimmy Carter.
But just a year later Democrat Charles S. Robb won a sweeping victory for governor of the commonwealth.
By and large, Virginians are an independent lot who have a long habit of sorting out candidates and often choosing them more by philosophy than by party.
How else to explain the fact that in a state that demographically has become increasingly Republican, voters in legislative and congressional districts that appear to greatly favor the GOP keep returning incumbent conservative Democrats to office?
Examples abound: The 2nd and 4th congressional districts, legislative districts occupied by Democrats such as Dels. V. Earl Dickinson, J. Paul Councill Jr., Whittington Clement, Jay DeBoer, et al.
Even in the days of the Byrd Organization (or Machine, if you prefer) when there was one party rule, there was spirited intraparty competition and the organization did not always dictate the statewide ticket - though it certainly did most of the time.
If polls are accurate, Clinton will do well in Virginia. Yet Democrats in general and Lt. Gov. Don Beyer in particular need not get too excited over the results.
A year is several lifetimes in politics, and a Clinton re-election may well result in a national hangover that will spill over into the Old Dominion. After all, Kenneth Starr will still be lurking out there after the election, and a second Clinton term is likely to be as unpredictable as the course of a tropical storm coming up the Atlantic.
Potential GOP statewide candidates such as Jim Gilmore, running for governor, could make hay out of any backlash that develops against Clinton. Those who support the incumbent president in Virginia this year may well develop some morning afterthoughts if Clinton veers sharply to the left as he did during the initial two years of his first term. Any agenda that includes bringing back gays in the military or a health plan that looks suspiciously like socialized medicine could put state Democrats once again on the defensive in 1997.
Add to that the obvious fact that it is not Clinton's popularity that will account for his performance in Virginia so much as Republican nominee Bob Dole's sorrowful campaign that has failed to ignite any passion in thousands of crucial voters who don't always vote on party lines.
This is made all the more obvious when it is considered that Democratic U.S. Senate nominee Mark Warner is going to get creamed by incumbent Republican Sen. John Warner on Election Day despite his record spending. Clearly, there are going to be many thousands of people who mark their ballots for both Bill Clinton and John Warner. It may sound odd, but this is Virginia, and politics in Virginia have always been a riddle wrapped in an enigma.
Anyway, don't bet the farm that this year's results in Virginia have anything much to do with what happens next year. Virginia voters always like to keep the pundits guessing. MEMO: John Goolrick, a former political reporter, is now an aide to 1st
District Rep. Herbert Bateman. Opinions expressed are his own. by CNB