THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1997, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Monday, January 20, 1997 TAG: 9701180837
SECTION: BUSINESS WEEKLY PAGE: 25 EDITION: FINAL
SERIES: 1997 FORECAST
SOURCE: BY STEPHANIE STOUGHTON, STAFF WRITER
LENGTH: 48 lines
Local economists expect small to moderate gains in retail sales for Hampton Roads this year as consumers continue to struggle with heaps of debt. But at least one economist is growing more optimistic about the retail scene.
``I think 1997 will be better for retailers,'' said John Whaley, chief economist for the Hampton Roads Planning District Commission. ``I think it's going to be a decent year.''
Whaley thinks Hampton Roads should see a 4.5 to 5 percent increase in retail sales. With a 3 percent inflation rate, that increase would be closer to 1.5 to 2 percent.
While the nation experienced moderate growth in 1996, Hampton Roads lagged behind as its labor force shrank, its population growth slowed and its income levels declined, he said.
This year, Whaley says, things should be different in the region.
There should be fewer layoffs affecting Hampton Roads, he said. And retailers may feel the impact as the first waves of military personnel arrive at Oceana Naval Air Station in Virginia Beach, Whaley said.
A forecast by Norfolk's Old Dominion University, meantime, calls for smaller gains in local retail sales. It says total taxable sales in Hampton Roads should climb 3.5 percent to $12.6 billion in 1997 from $12.2 billion last year (or about a 0.5 percent increase with a 3 percent inflation rate).
That follows on the heels of an estimated 5 percent increase - or 2 percent after inflation - for Hampton Roads in 1996, said ODU Professor Gilbert Yochum, one of the study's authors. Nationally, retail sales rose about the same amount last year.
Yochum expects that Hampton Roads will closely track the nation's economic growth trends in 1997.
``We're looking at a slowdown in the nation, as you'll see a slowdown in Hampton Roads,'' Yochum said.
While customers are expected to spend more money this year, they'll have more places to shop as the retail boom continues in Hampton Roads.
Supermarket and discount chains, in particular, continue to open more stores. Hannaford Brothers Co., a supermarket chain based in Scarborough, Maine, is moving on with its expansion plans for the region. And Target Stores and Wal-Mart also plan to open new outlets. ILLUSTRATION: [Color Photo]
[Cash register]
KEYWORDS: 1997 FORECAST RETAIL SALES