THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1997, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Sunday, February 16, 1997 TAG: 9702140015
SECTION: COMMENTARY PAGE: J4 EDITION: FINAL
TYPE: Editorial
LENGTH: 54 lines
How do you spell ``success'' in welfare reform?
Is it a matter of reducing the case-load of individuals receiving government-assistance checks? Or is it a matter of moving families into stable jobs and out of poverty?
By the first measure, recent state and federal reforms appear to be a stunning success. Nationwide, welfare caseloads have dropped 18 percent in the past three years. The trend predates the reforms, but has been accelerated by them.
The caseload decline in Virginia since welfare reform began being phased in 20 months ago is also 18 percent. In three states - Wisconsin, Oregon and Indiana - the drop exceeds 40 percent.
What no one can say with certainty is how much of the decline is due to tough new laws that make it harder to collect welfare, and how much stems from an improved economy that has made it easier to find work. The nation's unemployment rate has been below 6 percent for an unusually long stretch - 28 months.
Even so, the dramatic shift in public assistance almost certainly is not due to an upbeat economy alone. Past periods of prosperity have produced nothing approaching the change under way. If the measure of victory is reducing government involvement in the lives of the poor, we are on the way.
Unfortunately, no one has yet found a way to measure how many of those who have left the rolls of Aid to Families with Dependent Children (now Temporary Assistance for Needy Families) are living improved lives. Presumably, many are working. But that is, in fact, largely a presumption.
Caseworkers may know that an individual is employed when she stops receiving a government check. But there is no required accounting if she loses that job three months down the road. Nor is anyone keeping track of how well children are being housed or clothed or fed on the wages such workers are bringing home.
It will, in fact, take years to know whether welfare reform has worked. Nor will the answers be fully available until the cutoff of benefits occurs on a large scale. In many cases, that won't happen for several more years. Moreover, the true test will have multiple parts, and many of the answers will be hard to grade.
To judge, we'll need to know whether homelessness and demand for foster-care services for children increase over time. We'll want to consider whether out-of-wedlock births decline and whether fathers are more involved in the financial support of their children. We'll have to ask whether fewer or more people are living in poverty.
That the number of welfare recipients is down is, on the surface, cause for celebration. It is fine to relish the moment, as many politicians from President Clinton to Gov. George F. Allen are doing. But we should not forget that it will take time and deeper scrutiny to know whether this is a paper victory or true success.