THE VIRGINIAN-PILOT
Copyright (c) 1997, Landmark Communications, Inc.
DATE: Saturday, February 22, 1997 TAG: 9702240013
SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A12 EDITION: FINAL
TYPE: OPINION
SOURCE: BY JOHN GOOLRICK
LENGTH: 72 lines
Providing the defendants don't appeal - and there would be little hope of winning an appeal - the Virginia General Assembly may deal later this year with fixing the state's congressional boundaries after a federal court ruling that the present 3rd District is unconstitutional.
There are many ways that can be done, but several considerations loom large and may encourage Democrats and Republicans to try to accommodate each other.
Key democratic leaders are passing the word that their major priority will be making sure that incumbent 3rd District Rep. Bobby Scott, the first black elected to Congress from Virginia in modern times, remains in a safe seat, although one with a reduced percentage of blacks.
At the same time, Democrats will be trying to do no harm to present Democratic incumbents such as Rep. Owen Pickett of the 2nd District and Norman Sisisky of the 4th District.
One of the plaintiffs in the court case, Don Moon, 3rd District GOP chairman, is floating a redistricting plan that is overtly partisan and might give Republicans the advantage in a district where Scott lived and in some other radically redrawn districts.
That plan appears to be a nonstarter. Instead, since the state must be completely redistricted again following the 2000 census, Republicans in the legislature may be content to make adjustments that protect incumbent GOP Rep. Herbert H. Bateman in the 1st District and Thomas Bliley in the 7th District.
Many scenarios are being mentioned but the one put forth most often would place Scott in an urban district located entirely in Hampton Roads and restore Bliley to a district taking in practically all of the Richmond metropolitan area.
If that were done, the rest would fall naturally into place so long as the court was willing to accept the use of 1990 census figures in the reapportionments.
Bateman, for instance, would probably pick up the small mid-Peninsula counties that were formerly part of the 1st District before going into the 3rd in 1992. He could also take over those portions of Hanover and Spotsylvania counties that Bliley now represents.
In Sisisky's case, he would probably lose his part of Portsmouth to Scott, but pick up such present 7th District localities as Culpeper, Madison, Orange, Greene and part of Albemarle while taking those parts of Suffolk, Petersburg, Hopewell and Prince George Co. presently in Scott's district, and get Surry County from the 3rd.
Scott would almost certainly get the part of Hampton that is now in the 1st District. He might also pick up more of Norfolk, though Pickett might be reluctant to go along and end up in a district that would be controlled more than 2-1 by Virginia Beach, which often leans Republican. Yet because his voting record is moderate-conservative, Pickett would likely still be secure in such a district.
Scott is presently in a 64 percent black-majority district. His new district may be from 45 percent to 50 percent black, but if he gets more of Norfolk, traditionally a city friendly to Democrats, he probably won't have to worry about re-election.
This is all speculation and there are still those partisans on both sides who will try to tip the unexpected redistricting process to either Republican or Democratic advantage. But weighing heavily against such purposes, including the Moon plan, will be incumbent members of Congress who don't want their districts tinkered with.
As a result, the probability is - and this is merely an educated guess - that the redistricting process will affect only the 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 7th districts with the rest being let alone. The new lines can be made compact enough to satisfy the court's overturning what is called the racially gerrymandered, strange-shaped 3rd District. The process will be disruptive, but can be done with the minimum disruption the courts are likely to allow. MEMO: John Goolrick, a former political reporter, is now an aide to 1st
District Rep. Herbert H. Bateman. The opinions expressed are his own.
KEYWORDS: CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS REDISTRICTING