DATE: Sunday, April 20, 1997                TAG: 9704200164

SECTION: SPORTS                  PAGE: C1   EDITION: FINAL 

TYPE: Column 

SOURCE: Tom Robinson

DATELINE: NORFOLK                           LENGTH:   69 lines

ADMIRALS WILL WIN; THEY DON'T MIND SAYING SO

See you Wednesday. Start saving your nickels, because the Admirals will open their third-round playoff series that night at Scope against Pensacola, the first-year franchise that has been the surprise of this ECHL postseason by soaring from the 16th-seed into the semifinals.

Yeah, I know there's this somewhat critical matter of Game 5 against the South Carolina Stingrays for the Admirals to take care of this evening. In Charleston, no less, where they are 1-5 this season.

They'll take care of it. They'll dump the Stingrays for a few reasons, not the least of which is they're the better team. Because at 22-11-2 during the regular season, they are the best road team in the league, despite their aforementioned trouble in South Carolina.

They have the better goalie, Darryl Paquette, while South Carolina's front-liner, Jason Fitzsimmons, is flu-ridden and didn't even dress for Saturday's 5-4 Admirals victory.

They'll win because the Admirals are playing better overall, hitting harder and more often, and want it badly for themselves and absent teammate Chris Phelps, whose daughter died last week.

Plus, they aren't afraid to tell you they're going to win. I liked what Aaron Downey said before Game 4, about how the Admirals are better than South Carolina.

Hockey and boxing might be the only sports that give you that kind of chutzpah, where the athletes aren't afraid to give the other guys so-called bulletin board material.

It's refreshing. So I'll join the club.

The Admirals will reach the semifinals for the first time since 1992.

Now, if Ian Walsh is the referee again tonight, maybe I hedge my bet a little bit. Walsh whistled 29 penalties Saturday - including a game misconduct on Stingrays coach Rick Vaive after it was all over - and many of them fell under the heading of ``are-you-kidding?''

Clearly out to corral the extracurricular rough stuff, Walsh nit-picked and doled out power-play opportunities like cashews. The Admirals had nine chances and converted just once to fall to 3-for-28 for the series. South Carolina also had at least a one-man advantage nine times and scored twice, making it 9-for-36 in the four games.

Oh, and Walsh's last call is another reason the Admirals will win - because they don't have a bone-head named Marc Tardif, who drew a high-sticking penalty with 50 seconds left as his team tried to swarm for the game-tying goal.

With Tardif, who was used sparingly, back in the box for the third time - he leads South Carolina with 44 playoff penalty minutes - the Stingrays' last chance to flood the Admirals' zone with an extra man frittered away.

Now, having said that, it's not beyond question that the Admirals' own usual penchant for penalties won't blow all this bravado out of the water. They were fourth in the league in penalty minutes during the regular season, and everybody in the Admirals' locker room is all too aware that you can't win the Kelly Cup if you're in the coop.

The Admirals had late leads in Games 1 and 2 in South Carolina, but too many penalties led to overtime losses each night.

``I think we definitely have the edge over them,'' said the Admirals' Victor Gervais, who had a goal and two assists Saturday, ``just because we've won the last two games. They're going to be a little down.

``But they'll play well in their rink. We can't take penalties. If we take penalties against them, it could be a long night. If we can stay out of the box, it'll be a lot easier for us.''

It's been a rough series between the regular season's two best teams. Both are tired, and both awoke early this morning to catch a plane for Game 5. But on balance, the Admirals believe they were better than the Stingrays in the first two games.

I've got to believe they'll be better again.

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