DATE: Tuesday, June 10, 1997                TAG: 9706100274

SECTION: LOCAL                   PAGE: B5   EDITION: FINAL 

SOURCE: BY PHILIP WALZER, STAFF WRITER 

DATELINE: RICHMOND                          LENGTH:   95 lines

TOO-HIGH ESTIMATES OF ENROLLMENT COULD HURT ODU, NSU FUNDING OLD DOMINION'S DROP IS FROM A MORE CONSERVATIVE PROJECTION OF OFF-CAMPUS STUDENTS.

Looking forward to 2001, Old Dominion University was way off - 18 percent - in the number of students it expected to be teaching, education officials said Monday.

The State Council of Higher Education released revised statewide enrollment figures for the next five years. Aside from George Mason University, ODU had made the largest error in its enrollment estimate.

In 1995, it had estimated it would have 22,321 students in the 2001-02 year. Now, it expects 18,342.

The drop is due to a more conservative projection in off-campus enrollment, which includes satellite centers - such as the Virginia Beach center - and Teletechnet.

The new off-campus projection for 2001 is about 3,650 students, down from 8,060. Most of the decrease can be attributed to Teletechnet, which beams courses throughout Virginia.

Explaining the overestimate, ODU officials said it's hard to predict how fast a new program will grow.

ODU now has 17,800 enrolled, including 3,414 off campus. Most of them are Teletechnet students.

``Teletechnet is going to grow significantly, but it's going to happen when sites are phased in,'' said J. Michael Mullen, deputy director of the state council, who oversees the enrollment projections.

Norfolk State University was also among the six state universities with the greatest overestimates: NSU's new forecast for 2001 is 8,879 students, down about 900 from the previous 9,783. Norfolk State now has 8,350 students.

Virginia's colleges are not funded strictly per student, but enrollment plays a part in their funding. So the revised estimates could make it harder for ODU and Norfolk State to lobby for more money in the future. Both have argued that they are underfunded compared with their peers.

Teletechnet transmits courses to about 2,000 students at more than two dozen sites across Virginia, primarily community colleges. The idea is to give adults who don't live near a state-supported four-year college a chance to get a bachelor's degree.

ODU has promoted itself as the state's leader in distance education. But the statistical change could mean that it's anybody's game, Mullen said. ``There could be many, many players, including lots from outside'' Virginia.

ODU's revision is caused partly by a space crunch at community colleges, which is slowing Teletechnet's expansion, Mullen said.

David F. Harnage, ODU's vice president for administration and finance, said in an interview Monday that the revision also reflects the difficulty in predicting enrollment in a new program such as Teletechnet.

``As we get more experience in Teletechnet, that will enable us to base our projections on a more solid foundation,'' he said. ``But that does not say that Teletechnet is not succeeding spectacularly. Teletechnet is a program Old Dominion and the commonwealth should be proud of.''

Mullen attributed NSU's drop primarily to a decline in out-of-state enrollment because of hefty tuition increases for non-Virginians. NSU budget officials could not be reached.

Overall, enrollment at the public four-year colleges in the year 2001 is expected to be 178,683, down 19,000 from the previous estimate. That's 7 percent higher than the current 167,809.

Mullen attributed the statewide dip to a slowdown in the number of people moving to Virginia and a drop in the number of 25- to 34-year-olds, who are making up a larger share of the student body, especially at urban schools like ODU.

Discussion of the enrollment numbers was muted at the council's meeting Monday. But the accuracy of the projections has been a major point of contention between the appointed members of the agency and the staff within the last year.

The members last fall approved changes in the forecasting process, requiring state council officials to work more closely with the state budget department.

Also at the council's meeting Monday:

The council gave final approval for a master's degree in public health, to be offered jointly by ODU and Eastern Virginia Medical School. Initial approval was granted in November.

The agency reported that average annual tuition and fees at Virginia four-year schools will rise 2.3 percent next fall - from $4,002 to $4,095. The total package, including room and board, will go up 2.6 percent, to $8,601, for in-state undergraduates.

Council members unanimously approved a resolution commending the agency's longtime director, Gordon K. Davies - two months after they voted to dismiss him.

The eight-paragraph statement praised Davies for working ``to improve students' chances for academic success'' and promoting ``innovative programs such as assessment and restructuring.''

It was read by council member Donald Patten, a Newport News lawyer who voted to oust Davies. In April, Patten said he reluctantly supported the action because of bad ``chemistry.''

The members also appointed a five-member panel to search for Davies' replacement. KEYWORDS: OLD DOMINION UNIVERSITY NORFOLK STATE UNIVERSITY

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