DATE: Thursday, July 24, 1997               TAG: 9707240396

SECTION: LOCAL                   PAGE: B1   EDITION: FINAL 

SOURCE: BY STEVE STONE, STAFF WRITER 

                                            LENGTH:   85 lines

DANNY HEADS TO N.C., VA., THREATENING HEAVY RAIN AS MUCH AS 5 INCHES IS PREDICTED HERE.

``Deluge Danny'' is on track for North Carolina and Virginia, threatening to collide with a stalled frontal system somewhere along the border today, unleashing heavy rains over both states.

Forecasters are warning that as much as 5 inches of rain may spread through the states by tonight - more in localized downpours.

``Certainly we're going to see a tremendous amount of rainfall,'' Tom Moore, a senior meteorologist at The Weather Channel in Atlanta, said Wednesday. ``Any time you interact that tropical air with a frontal boundary .

Forecasting exactly where the remnants of Danny would go - and how quickly the system would move - was proving increasingly difficult, however.

Most of Wednesday, the storm seemed to be heading northeast, threatening to slide up the east side of the Appalachian Mountains - a dangerous scenario for that area. By evening, however, Danny seemed to be moving on a more easterly course as its center moved through northwestern South Carolina.

That path, if maintained, could send the storm into the Atlantic.

``If the remnants of Danny do emerge out over the water, there could be some redevelopment'' of the former tropical storm or hurricane, Moore said. Still, expectations were that it would move on a generally northeasterly course into North Carolina overnight and then Virginia.

It remained a well-organized system, easily identified on satellite images Wednesday even though it was far inland. ``It's really amazing,'' Moore said. ``Here you have a storm that made landfall four days ago, and it still has a discernable circulation.''

Any rain from Danny will come on top of some major soakings delivered by thunderstorms in recent days in Virginia and North Carolina.

Late Tuesday night and early Wednesday, southeast winds laden with tropical moisture brought flash floods to southwest North Carolina. Up to 8 inches of rain was measured, and three people died in the Charlotte area.

Most of the mid-Atlantic was getting drenched, even without Danny. As of 5 p.m., official 24-hour rainfall totals included 6.15 inches in Charlotte; 4.27 inches in Marietta, Ga.; 2.35 inches in Richmond; and 2.18 inches in Norfolk.

It was still raining Wednesday night in Hampton Roads. Rainfall at the National Weather Service office at Norfolk International Airport slipped past the 5-inch mark for the month Wednesday afternoon - all but a half-inch having come in the past seven days. For the year, about 19 inches of rain has been measured in Norfolk - still short of the more than 25 inches normally recorded by late July.

Danny could easily fill that gap. ``Everywhere it's moved, it has dumped some heavy rain . . . enough to cause flooding,'' said Jeff Morrow, of The Weather Channel.

It's a dramatic change from just a week earlier, when the region was withering under a baking sun in a rainless sky. A moderate drought was threatening crops and frustrating residents whose lawns and gardens were turning brown. Now they are fuming about mud.

If Danny brought 5 inches of rain to Hampton Roads, how quickly it fell would be critical. Heavy rains, spread over many hours, are more easily absorbed by the ground and managed by drainage systems, streams and rivers.

The region's - and in particular, Norfolk's - storm drains rely on gravity, however. They slope at a slight angle, owing to their proximity to sea level. Dumped in a short period, drenching rains can easily spark flooding of low-lying areas, intersections and underpasses.

The Weather Service was more concerned Wednesday night about the potential for flooding in interior Virginia, however. Of special concern is how Danny might interact with the Appalachian Mountains.

The counter-clockwise circulation around Danny could run up the mountainsides, squeezing the storm like a sponge.

A flash-flood watch was posted overnight for North Carolina east of a line from Roanoke Rapids through Fayetteville and Laurinburg.

A flash-flood watch also was in effect, at least through this morning, for a wide area of west-central Virginia, including Charlottesville, Staunton, Waynesboro, Bedford, Winchester, Roanoke, Lexington and Harrisonburg.

Among the counties included in the watch was Nelson, which has seen its share of flooding from similar weather events.

In 1969, Hurricane Camille moved into Virginia after making landfall in Mississippi. It spawned rampant flooding, killing 153.

In Nelson County, 125 people were killed - 56 when Davis Creek roared down a hollow at night after Camille struck. ILLUSTRATION: Graphic

RAIN

THE AREA HAS HAD 19 INCHES OF RAIN THIS YEAR, DOWN FROM THE MORE

THAN 25 INCHES NORMALLY RECORDED.

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