DATE: Thursday, October 16, 1997            TAG: 9710160720

SECTION: SPORTS                  PAGE: C8   EDITION: FINAL 

SOURCE: BOB HUTCHINSON

                                            LENGTH:   36 lines

FISHING FORECAST A WEEKLY GUIDE TO THE REGION'S HOT SPOTS

In the future, when the topic of screwed up weather years are discussed, 1996 is likely to be at the top of the list.

The weather has been incredibly dry and coastal water temperatures are running higher than usual. Not a single hurricane threatened the East Coast. But the west coast of Mexico was battered by a hurricane in October.

Blame it on El Nino, that warm current flowing north in the Pacific. It certainly has the angling picture scrambled on both coasts of the United States.

Locally, croaker are supposed to be gone by now. They aren't. Stripers are supposed to be thick by now. They aren't. Yellowfin tuna numbers are supposed to be great off Oregon Inlet. They aren't. But dolphin are still available in quantity.

This week's cooler weather probably will get things headed back towards normal. But it might not.

Striper numbers should increase, especially around the three bridge-tunnels in Hampton Roads. Croaker populations should thin considerably. Yellowfin catches should climb off the Outer Banks, and dolphin should start heading south.

Whether all this comes together probably will depend much on the weather we get over the next couple of weeks.

If unseasonable warmth visits again, the screwed-up weather should continue to produce some screwed-up fishing.

Freshwater anglers are also suffering the side effects of El Nino, which has the average rainfall for the year about 10 inches below normal.

Some lakes are as much as 15 feet below normal pool. And while that concentrates some species, at the best it leaves them unsettled.

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