DATE: Sunday, November 2, 1997 TAG: 9711020128 SECTION: FRONT PAGE: A1 EDITION: FINAL TYPE: DECISION '97 SOURCE: BY HOLLY A. HEYSER AND LEDYARD KING, STAFF WRITERS LENGTH: 148 lines
There is perhaps no better metaphor for the race for governor than the lawn signs that have sprouted in the grassy medians of busy Fairfax thoroughfares.
Lots of little signs peep, ``Education First - Beyer.'' Then, occasionally, a big one roars, ``No Car Tax! Gilmore.''
Love it or loathe it, buy it or not, Republican candidate Jim Gilmore's promise to ``abolish the car tax'' is dominating public consciousness in this campaign. That much became abundantly clear after interviews with more than five dozen voters all over Virginia last week.
What's also clear is that there is no comparable rallying cry for supporters of Democrat Don Beyer.
``I just like what he says,'' said 72-year-old Beyer supporter Mary Wyatt of Portsmouth.
``He doesn't say a whole lot. . . .'' She stopped and laughed. ``But nobody does.''
Not all Gilmore supporters cite the tax as their reason for supporting the Republican - some are just Republican voters. Some like his stern position on abortion.
But a lot like that ``no car tax'' promise. It's simple. It's clear. From a Gilmore TV ad: ``Eliminate the car tax. Put five more teachers in every public elementary school. You can rely on Gilmore.''
``I'm gonna vote for the no-tax guy,'' said Ty, a 36-year-old mechanic at a Virginia Beach gas station.
Richmond clothing store manager Sean Peter, 27, decided to support Gilmore ``when I started hearing about the car tax, and a couple other issues, like education,'' he said.
``I think the car tax is the biggest thing,'' said 51-year-old Noel Clinger of Fairfax, who works for the federal government. He and his wife pay about $4,000 a year on two cars.
``No car tax'' is on all of Gilmore's signs and in most of his ads, and people get it immediately.
Just about everyone hates the personal property tax on cars and trucks, whether they pay $50 a year for their old clunkers or $4,000 for a couple of really nice cars.
So attacking the tax is about as safe as declaring war on germs that cause gingivitis, and as effective as advertising beer with bullfrogs and disgruntled lizards.
Of course, there's a difference between knowing about Gilmore's promise and being convinced by it.
``Ain't no way in the world they're going to cut the tax,'' said a 34-year-old Roanoke construction worker who plans to vote for Gilmore. ``Where are the cities and counties going to get their money?''
Plenty of Virginians seriously doubt the car tax will go away, if for no other reason than believing that all politicians' promises are suspect. Even if the next General Assembly and governor do eliminate the car tax - and there's some doubt whether it would pass constitutional muster - many people assume politicians would replace it with another tax.
Clinger gives Gilmore no better than a 30-70 chance of pulling it off. ``But at least he's trying,'' he said.
Beyer fought Gilmore's catchy slogan at first by criticizing Gilmore's tax plan as irresponsible, and later by appealing to voter skepticism.
``I think my opponent vastly underestimates the common sense of the Virginia people,'' Beyer said in a recent TV ad. ``It's an insult to them to put a little `no car tax' on a yard sign and think they're gullible enough just to believe that.''
Fairfax resident Corey Furey, 40, agrees. ``I'm just not going to fall for that,'' she said.
She's moved more by education issues, she said. ``I don't like how Gilmore refused Goals 2000 money,'' she said, referring to federal funds for public schools.
Both candidates have hawked their education plans - and slammed each other's - since the beginning of the campaign.
``Who will fight for our children's education? Not Jim Gilmore,'' said one Beyer TV ad. ``Gilmore supported a $90 million tax cut in education. Wrote the opinion that made Virginia the only state to refuse Goals 2000 education money.''
The Gilmore campaign countered immediately: ``Don Beyer is at it again. Slipping in the polls, he's already started a negative attack against Jim Gilmore. On education, he knows Jim Gilmore will hire more public school teachers to reduce class sizes. Beyer's plan is to spend $400 million on pay raises without putting one new teacher in the classroom.''
In interviews with The Virginian-Pilot, voters often cited ``his education plan'' as one reason they were going to vote for Beyer. Or for Gilmore.
But only a few could recite details about their plans.
``I believe Beyer is for increasing the number of teachers,'' said Betsy Williams of Richmond, a 31-year-old retail bond trader.
``No,'' she corrected herself. ``Gilmore's for increasing the number of teachers and Beyer's for giving them a raise.''
Education is an area in which the next governor could profoundly influence public policy, and with more ease than getting rid of a tax assessed by local - not state - governments.
But education policy isn't as simple and appealing as cutting a deeply annoying tax. Nor is it as emotionally gripping as an issue like abortion, which has figured prominently in campaign ads as the race has progressed.
In one recent Beyer ad, a woman says, ``I usually vote Republican, but I'm not supporting Jim Gilmore for governor. Gilmore went too far when he said he would outlaw abortion after eight weeks, even in cases of rape and incest. But I was insulted when Gilmore talked about treating women like second-class citizens who should be required to ask a man before exercising their right to choose.''
That kind of talk from Beyer convinced at least one voter - Paula Thomas of Chesapeake - to vote for Gilmore.
``If you want to kill it, kill it before it's eight weeks old,'' said Thomas, a 39-year-old customer service worker. ``That's plenty of time.''
Gilmore hasn't proposed outlawing abortion after eight weeks, though he said he personally opposes abortion after that point. He hasn't proposed requiring spousal consent for abortion, though he once said - and quickly downplayed - that he believed spousal consent was worth considering.
Nor is it likely Gilmore could enact such laws even if he wanted to. But Williams - the Richmond bond trader - said she feels like abortion rights would be in danger under Gilmore, so she's voting for Beyer, even though she's a registered Republican.
``Abortion is the big thing to me,'' she said.
The moral of the story is that it's not enough to have a message. Getting your message to the voters is everything.
Unconvinced? Just ask Sue Harris DeBauche.
Who's that, you ask? She's the other candidate for governor, the Reform Party candidate.
She's raised less than $1,500, so you don't see any ads for her on TV. Pollsters and the press virtually ignore her. Few voters knew DeBauche was even on the ballot until she sued over being excluded from a televised debate.
``I saw an ad today for a third party,'' mused 25-year-old Bengetta Chatman, a Woodbridge school teacher.
``It was a white sign with blue letters. But I couldn't tell you who it was. It was just one sign.'' ILLUSTRATION: Color photos
GARY C. KNAPP
Republican James S. Gilmore III...
ASSOCIATED PRESS
Democrat Donald S. Beyer Jr....
BETH BERGMAN NAKAMURA/The Virginian-Pilot
VICKI CRONIS/The Virginian-Pilot
On the campaign trail, admirers come in all sizes...Jim
Gilmore...Don Beyer's wife...
Graphic
THE CAR TAX PROPOSALS
GILMORE PLAN
BEYER PLAN
[For complete graphic, please see microfilm] KEYWORDS: ELECTION VIRGINIA GUBERNATORIAL RACE VIRGINIA
PLATFORMS TAXES CANDIDATES
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