
DATE: Wednesday, November 12, 1997          TAG: 9711080608

SECTION: FRONT                   PAGE: A11  EDITION: FINAL 

SERIES: Future of the Fleet

                                            LENGTH:  172 lines

THE HOT ZONES

The Norfolk-based carrier Theodore Roosevelt played a leading role in American intervention in the region in 1995. In all likelihood, we'll be going back.

TURKEY

A centuries-old enmity continues between Turkey and Greece. Combined with a fragile Turkish political system, the chances are good for conflict in the region - which, given American reliance on Turkey in its dealings with Iraq and Russia, could spell trouble.

RUSSIA

Russia's armed forces have steadily deteriorated since the late 1980s, particularly its navy: In 1990-95, its naval ranks and fleet of ships were slashed by half, its fleet aircraft by two-thirds. One study estimates Russia loses 13 to 15 ships a month and that by 2000, its shipbuilding muscle will have sustained irreversible atrophy.

Its ground and air forces haven't fared much better. Only a few battalions and regiments are capable of acting as a coordinated force, 70 to 75 percent of its tanks require replacement, and only 60 percent of its air assault units are judged combat-ready. One in five of its military air fields has deteriorated beyond repair.

Still, the country retains an enormous cache of nuclear weapons, and harbors a growing distrust of American intentions. It also has proven all too willing to part with arms for hard currency.

BALTICS

Large ethnic Russian minorities in the Baltic states have not won full rights and benefits from the new governments there, sparking tension that could someday bring civil war. Russia's interest in the region is heightened by the isolation of Kaliningrad, Russian territory that can be reached only through the former Soviet satellites.

UKRAINE

Moscow and Kiev likely will strive to remain cool in the face of several hot issues facing their governments. Among them: Unhappy ethnic Russian minorities in eastern Ukraine and the Crimea, and the division of the former Soviet Black Sea Fleet . . . or what's left of it.

THE CAUCASUS

Russian troops have been deployed in Chechnya, North Ossetia and Ingushetia, in incursions that failed to instill stability to the region. U.S. experts predict it will become evermore unbalanced in coming years, thanks in part to Russia's declining military might and the influence of Turkey, Iran and other neighbors.

CENTRAL AFRICA

Within 12 months in 1996-97, crises in Liberia, Zaire and Sierra Leone endangered American citizens and prompted Navy response. Such situations pose no direct threats to American interests, but U.S. values likely will send the Navy back, perhaps regularly, to keep the peace or provide relief.

This fireman's duty will force the Navy to make do elsewhere without some of its ships, particularly its amphibious ``gators.''

ALGERIA

A defacto civil war between Islamic radicals and Algeria's military-controlled government has raged here since 1992, and has led to the deaths of foreigners as well as some 50,000 Algerians. U.S. facilities have been attacked, and American forces could be imperiled if an evacuation becomes necessary.

LIBYA

In the past 15 years this American-labeled ``state sponsor of terrorism'' has twice tangled with Navy fighters and has been on the receiving end of a Navy-Air Force bomb attack. Libya is now embarked on constructing an underground chemical weapons plant at Tarhunah. It seems a safe bet the United States will take whatever steps necessary to prevent the plant's operation.

YEMEN

A feud with Saudi Arabia centers on Yemen's claim to all of the water-rich Asir province, the Arabian peninsula's agricultural breadbasket, and extensive oil-rich desert regions - both areas now within Saudi borders.

NORTH KOREA

Its forces are poised along a frontier only 25 miles from Seoul, the South Korean capital, and are bolstered by a growing quiver of missiles. Its military doctrine is founded on rapid invasion of the South. It is capable of producing or obtaining biological and chemical weapons.

This strong military, North Korea's free-falling economy and the prospect of famine and disease make for the worst threat to peace and American aims in the region in nearly 50 years.

Abandoned by its Soviet and Chinese benefactors, North Korea has little chance of reversing its slide. Its response to this desperate situation is unpredictable, but suicidal misadventure south of the DMZ is not unthinkable.

Nor is the revival of North Korea's nuclear weapons program - which, before it was suspended in 1994, prompted America to warn of crippling economic sanctions and the Koreans to respond they would turn Seoul into a ``sea of fire.'' A new weapons program would force the United States to threaten further sanctions or take out the North's nuclear sites. Either way, we'd probably be at war.

CHINA

Relations between this vast mainland nation and its offshore offspring, Taiwan, will wax and wane in coming years, and may reach full-blown crisis at times. The mainland will not compromise on reunification of the two Chinas, and will strive to take action to counter Taiwan's sense of independence. An all-out invasion is unlikely, but other military gambits - partial blockade and missile attack among them - could deliver strong rebukes to the Taiwanese and beg a Navy response.

SPRATLY ISLANDS

This archipelago of 100 reefs, atolls and islets in the South China Sea is claimed by the People's Republic of China, Taiwan and Vietnam; in addition, parts of the chain are claimed by Malaysia and the Philippines, and Brunei has economic dibs on one reef. The United States has taken no position on the issue of ownership, but has made clear its intention to keep the surrounding seas open to commerce. If a fight erupted, the Navy could expect the chief role in backing up that stance. THE PERSIAN GULF

Its entrance is guarded by a narrow strait. Its shipping lanes are within missile range of nearby islands. Belligerents and uneasy friends line its shores. Perhaps no other body of water so severely tests the Navy's skill at deploying to the littorals.

IRAN

Blessed with a shoreline the length of the Persian Gulf, this rogue regime is rapidly building a Navy and importing Chinese and North Korean missiles - weapons with which it could disrupt shipping and seek control of such chokepoints as the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran's air force is no threat, and its ground forces are poorly equipped and trained. But declining domestic conditions could bring even less stability than usual to its leadership, and that could spell trouble for the country's neighbors.

Regardless, Iran poses a challenge: Its Shi'ite Muslim leaders are committed to defeating the West, and will strive to harass Sunni Muslim ruling groups in Arab countries into ending their support of the U.S.

Among Iran's growing naval holdings are three ex-Russian Kilo-class submarines, diesel-electric boats that are well-suited to the Persian Gulf's shallow waters and constricted passages.

GULF ISLANDS

Control of Abu Musa and the two Tunbs, which dominate the narrow shipping channels just north of the Strait of Hormuz, has been shared by Iran and UAE under a 1971 agreement. Iran, however, is now challenging that pact. If it wins sole control of the islands, Iran could use them as missile bases to interrupt shipping and interfere with Navy patrols.

BAHRAIN

Islamic extremists have bombed hotels and restaurants popular with foreigners in this homeport of the U.S. Fifth Fleet. While American facilities have not been attacked, the possibility certainly exists.

IRAQ

A rogue state lacking a navy or credible air force, Iraq nonetheless retains formidable power on the ground. It also has the capacity to deploy biological and chemical weapons - and, like Iran and North Korea, is thought to view such weapons as tools of first choice, rather than last resort.

Essentially landlocked, Iraq's hunger for shoreline expansion is expected to continue. The regime is also expected to continuously challenge UN-imposed constraints over the coming decade.

GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL

Comprising Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates, this loose confederation is outgunned by Iraq and relies on Western backing. Friction exists within, however: Some member states are openly feuding and several resent Saudi dominance. Regime changes, local opposition, terrorism or sabotage could bring decline in the GCC's pro-American stance.

QATAR

The young Amir of this desert nation replaced his father in a bloodless 1995 coup and has since challenged Saudi leadership of the GCC, flouted the council's rules and pursued an independent foreign policy. A clash with the Saudis could kill the GCC altogether. MEMO: Main story on page A1. ILLUSTRATION: Color graphic

Text by EARL SWIFT

Color graphic with maps by JOHN EARLE\ The Navy's pursuit of

forward presence means sending its ships into the backyards of known

foes - and among feuds that could be equally dangerous.

THE BALKANS

The shooting in Bosnia has stopped for now, thanks to the Dayton

Accords and the continuing presence of foreign peacekeepers. But the

region's ethnic divisions are centuries old and deeply carved;

Muslims, Croats and Serbs, each well-armed, are led by

ultranationalists who fan hate of the others. The resulting distrust

will continue to vex those seeking a stable government and a

permanent end to bloodshed.